Farmers and analysts in France are increasingly concerned that the nation’s corn harvest could be the smallest in half a century due to prolonged heat and drought conditions. This situation could further strain European grain production as farmers have already reduced cultivated areas, according to reports.
On Friday, the European grain traders’ association Coceral lowered its corn production estimate for the European Union by nearly 8%, now projecting it at 52.7 million tons, the lowest level since 2007. This reduction follows a 7% cut in production forecasts by market analysis company Expana, both citing damage caused by weather conditions in France and also in Hungary.
As France experiences its third heatwave since late May, with no significant rainfall expected in the coming days, crop losses may worsen, potentially overshadowing the beneficial impact of improved rainfall on the European harvest in Romania.
According to data from the French agricultural agency FranceAgriMer, the condition of corn crops in France deteriorated to its lowest level in at least 15 years last week. “Production losses are increasing day by day due to heat and lack of rain,” said Benoit Fayaud, a senior grain market analyst at Expana.
The company currently estimates France’s corn harvest at 8.9 million tons, which is one-third lower than last year’s levels. Fayaud warned that production could fall below 8 million tons for the first time since 1976, another year marked by extreme summer weather.
French Farmers Attempt to Salvage Crops
Franck Laborde, president of the farmers’ organization AGPM, revealed that some farmers in western France have begun harvesting unirrigated corn crops even before pollination to save the plants for animal feed.
Last week, AGPM estimated that production would decrease by 30%, down to 9.5 million tons, the lowest level this century. Laborde stated that the organization expects to further revise its forecasts downward, partly because early harvesting will reduce the area available for grain harvesting.
Meteorologists predict that the current heatwave in France will persist until the beginning of next week, followed by some rainfall and more moderate temperatures mid-week.
Heavy Rains in Romania
The weather stress on crops in France, as well as in Hungary and Spain, has further impacted the corn production outlook for the European Union, especially as the area under cultivation is estimated to have fallen below 8 million hectares for the first time this century.
Farmers have been discouraged by poor yields during increasingly hot and dry summers, coupled with sharply rising costs for fertilizers and energy due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Cezar Gheorghe, a representative of the grain market consultancy AGRIColumn, reported that Romania has lost about one million hectares of corn cultivation since 2019, as repeated droughts have pushed farmers to switch to other crops.
However, Gheorghe noted that Romania’s corn production is set to increase this year, supported by abundant rainfall that should allow for better yields to offset the reduced cultivated area. “Romania has had rain and has yet to face sweltering heat,” he emphasized. “This is extraordinarily good news.”
He estimates that Romania’s corn harvest will reach 8.2 million tons this year, compared to the official estimate of 7.75 million tons for 2025.
