Russian President Vladimir Putin has turned down calls for peace negotiations with Kyiv, according to three sources familiar with Kremlin discussions. Recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and ports have reinforced his resolve to continue the conflict for the foreseeable future.
Two of these sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, indicated that Putin is inclined to escalate the already five-year-old conflict. One source, who meets regularly with the Russian leader, described a “high likelihood” of escalation in the upcoming months.
This commentary follows statements from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who claimed earlier this week that Putin desires an end to the war and that a resolution is “closer than people realize.” Trump recently held separate phone conversations with both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. On Wednesday, they met at the NATO summit, where Zelensky noted they discussed “ideas to bring peace closer.”
Putin’s Stubbornness on Territorial Goals
One insider stated that Putin has become “stubborn” in his pursuit of the key objective of conquering the remainder of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, where Russian forces have seen slowed progress this year. This source added that Putin recently reprimanded a group of advisors who suggested a compromise based on a ceasefire along the current front line. Another informant mentioned that Putin believes Russia will soon capture Donbas.
Last month, Putin publicly rejected Zelensky’s proposal for a meeting and ceasefire.
“Russia is prepared for a peaceful resolution, but it has sufficient capabilities to act independently and continue the special military operation,” said Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, responding to inquiries about the article published by Reuters.
In response to a request for comments from Zelensky’s office, a senior Ukrainian official stated that intelligence reports from Kyiv in recent months suggest Putin is preparing for new phases of the war, not for peace.
Concerns Over Potential Russian Provocations in NATO Countries
Some Western military analysts believe that Russia may need to enforce mandatory mobilization of eligible men to achieve its goals in Donbas. However, such a move is politically unpopular and has been avoided by Putin since the start of the war.
Russian military experts have increasingly discussed escalating the conflict, including the possibility of targeting European sites such as NATO bases in the Baltic states.
Such an action could risk drawing Russia into direct confrontation with the U.S.-led alliance and would test NATO’s commitment to its principle that an attack on one member is an attack on all.
Analyst Jack Watling from the British defense and security think tank RUSI stated that Russia might attempt to provoke tensions within NATO through isolated attacks. He cited the recent incursion of a Russian drone into Romanian airspace, which fell on an apartment building in Galați, as an example.
“The Russians would not seek war with NATO. But this could be used to create divisions within NATO regarding how to respond,” Watling said. He added that increased tensions with NATO could provide Putin with a political justification for introducing compulsory military service.
The War’s Rising Costs for Russia
Repeated strikes on refineries, ports, and fuel depots in Russia and in territories occupied by Russia have caused severe fuel shortages, impacting the daily lives of millions of Russians. While Putin’s approval ratings remain high, they have recently dropped to the lowest level since the war began in 2022, according to a survey.
Ukraine’s allies have taken advantage of what they describe as a shift in the “dynamics” of the war, with some calling for additional economic sanctions to compel Putin to end the conflict.
However, Ukraine’s recent successes have made Putin even angrier and more determined to respond forcefully, according to the individual who regularly meets with him.
In the past week, Russian forces launched two major drone and missile strikes against Ukraine, including on the capital, Kyiv, resulting in civilian casualties. Moscow claimed the strikes targeted military objectives.
Last week, in remarks broadcast on television, Putin stated that Ukraine’s attacks on energy infrastructure mean that Russia will attempt to seize more Ukrainian territory along the border, beyond Donbas, to create a “security zone.”
Russia Intensifies Threats Against Ukraine
Andrei Ilnițki, a former Russian Defense Ministry official, wrote in an article published on June 29 in Kommersant, Russia’s largest financial newspaper, that escalation could begin with the destruction of 30 major industrial targets in Ukraine, including a steel mill and the port of Odesa.
Russia has already inflicted extensive damage on commercial enterprises and ports throughout Ukraine, impacting production and exports due to repeated attacks on energy infrastructure.
Ilnițki also indicated that the next phase could include strikes against NATO bases in the Baltic states and Romania, as well as against European Union facilities producing drones and long-range missiles for Ukraine.
When asked about Ilnițki’s article, Dmitry Peskov told journalists this week that Russia must bolster its own security and cannot “turn a blind eye” to Europe’s militarization.
A War of Attrition in Donbas
Discussions regarding a potential escalation by Russia occur amidst a slower pace of advancement on the battlefield, raising the prospect that significant time and numerous casualties will be needed to capture Donbas.
So far, approximately two million soldiers have been killed, wounded, or gone missing since the onset of the large-scale invasion in 2022, with 1.4 million being Russian, according to a recent estimate from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Neither side discloses updated figures on military losses.
This year, Russian troops have faced challenges in advancing along the 1,200-kilometer front as Ukrainian drones have countered Russia’s numerical advantage in soldiers. In recent weeks, Russia has slowly moved toward the eastern city of Kostiantinivka, one of several cities forming Ukraine’s critical defensive “fortress belt” in the Donetsk region.
On July 3, Putin claimed that Russian forces have captured Kostiantinivka. Ukraine denied this assertion.
The following day, during a call with Trump, Putin attempted to convince him that Russia would seize the final fifth of the Donetsk region that remains under Ukrainian control.
According to the source who regularly meets with Putin, the Russian leader views the takeover of the region as a matter of principle, asserting that he “needs some form of victory.”
