Even though international diplomatic channels are trying to revive dialogue to end the war in Ukraine, NATO's eastern flank remains on a powder keg. In an interview with TVP World, the President of Latvia, Edgars Rinkēvičs, issued a stark warning: the North Atlantic Alliance must be prepared for worst-case scenarios, as Vladimir Putin's Russia remains a highly dangerous and unpredictable geopolitical actor.
Edgars Rinkēvičs, president of Latvia/PHOTO: X
The leader from Riga wanted to dismantle a tactical optical illusion from the start: a possible Russian incursion into the Baltic states would not only be an isolated regional crisis, but a direct attack against NATO and the European Union as a whole.
“If there is an attack against the Baltic states, it will be an attack against NATO and Europe,” Rinkēvičs pointed out, stressing that such a military cataclysm would automatically draw major powers such as Poland, Germany and Great Britain into the conflict.
Russia's military failure adds to Putin's unpredictability
According to the Latvian president's analysis, Moscow's inability to achieve a decisive victory in Ukraine, compounded by the suffocating economic pressure of sanctions and the first signs of domestic discontent, is not making Russia more docile, but far more dangerous. The strategic impasse can push the Kremlin into desperate, hard-to-predict moves. In this context, military deterrence becomes the only valid currency.
“The better prepared we are, the less we will show that we are afraid”explained the Latvian head of state.
To respond to this reality, Latvia is tightening its ties with Kyiv. Rinkēvičs announced that his country cooperates closely with Ukraine in the sector of high-end military technologies – especially in the development of drone and anti-drone capabilities – and that a bilateral defense agreement is to be signed in the near future.
America is indispensable, but Europe must pay
Regarding the security architecture on the continent, Latvia's position reflects a realistic and pragmatic view, often found in the capitals of Eastern Europe. The United States remains an “indispensable” pillar of the continent's protection umbrella, but Europe can no longer function as a stowaway of its own security.
The President of Latvia insisted that European states must massively increase their investments in defense and expand regional cooperation on the axis formed by the Nordic countries, the Baltic states, Poland and Germany.
Putin will only sit down at the table when he feels he is losing
Referring to the recent diplomatic dynamics, in particular the open letter sent by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to Vladimir Putin proposing the resumption of direct talks and laying out Kiev's conditions for a ceasefire, Rinkēvičs praised the move as a mature analysis of Russia's position. However, he cautioned against naive optimism.
The Kremlin still operates under the false impression that it can bypass Kiev in negotiations, seeking favorable terms through intermediaries or directly from major Western powers.
Real progress is impossible at this point. Russia is not ready to change its aggressive behavior and will not seriously sit down to the negotiating table until it realizes, militarily and economically, that it is losing this war. Any attempt to marginalize Ukraine in the negotiations is doomed to failure. Europe must maintain constant pressure through sanctions and continue unconditional military support for Kiev, asserts the Latvian president.
