In the latest EC projection, cuts did not spare most countries. The forecast for Germany decreased by 0.6 percentage points, for Sweden by 0.8 percentage points, and for Romania by as much as 1 percentage point.
Poland, as one of the few countries, maintained the previous forecast – GDP growth at 3.5%. in 2025. This result is mainly due to stable private consumption and growing investments, largely financed by EU funds.
Data confirms resilience
PIE experts point out that macroeconomic estimates support the optimistic scenario. Poland's GDP in the first quarter of 2026 increased by 3.4%. year to year, almost perfectly matching the annual forecasts. Quarterly, the economy grew by 0.5%. after seasonal adjustment.
This is a signal that despite global tensions, the growth rate remains stable.
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KPO drives investments
The inflow of funds from the National Reconstruction Plan currently plays a key role. The EC indicates that the record absorption of funds in the final phase of the program strengthens the investment impulse.
In 2026, higher public spending co-financed by the EU is expected to compensate for the expected slowdown in private consumption and sustain solid GDP growth.
There is also good news from price data. In May 2026, inflation was 3.1%. year on year, falling from 3.2 percent a month earlier and clearly exceeding market expectations of 3.7%.
PIE experts indicate that food prices turned out to be crucial, as they unexpectedly dropped by 1%. month to month – contrary to the seasonal upward trend.
Core inflation also turned out to be lower than forecast and amounted to approximately 3%. rdr. This suggests that the increase in fuel prices did not translate into broad price pressure in the economy.
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Fuel shock under control
This is particularly important in the context of geopolitical tensions. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz in early March caused a spike in oil prices and was one of the main risk factors for inflation.
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However, May's data show that the Polish economy has shown great resistance to the energy shock. In the opinion of PIE experts, the government's quick reaction played an important role – reducing VAT and excise duty on fuels and introducing a daily price ceiling at the end of March.
Additionally, signals about possible progress in the US-Iran talks have started to cool the oil market, which reduces the risk of a return of inflationary pressure in the following months.
