Washington reveals list of cuts. Things may get hot in European capitals
This is a relatively short table containing eleven items and many military abbreviations, which US representatives provided to NATO on Friday. This small document, marked “secret”, has huge political consequences for the entire alliance. For the first time, it shows specifically what military capabilities the Americans intend to withdraw from NATO planning.
This may mean very serious challenges for European countries.
Already on Friday, American representatives warned NATO about the planned changes during a classified meeting. The information provided showed that the reductions would concern primarily the so-called NATO Force Model. This is a system that determines how many troops and what types of units NATO can transfer to the front within ten days, between the tenth and thirtieth days, and within a period of up to six months. To this end, Member States declare their military capabilities in terms of land, sea and air forces.
The disclosed list shows which of the so-called force elements will be limited by the United States.
Refueling planes
So far, the Americans have declared 71 older-type KC-135 air refueling aircraft. In the future, their number is to be reduced to 63. At the same time, all eight modern KC-46 air tankers are to be completely removed from NATO planning.
Combat planes
Drones
The Americans are withdrawing all long-range reconnaissance drones from NATO planning. At the same time, the number of armed MQ-9 unmanned aerial vehicles is to be reduced by almost half.
Naval forces
One of the two aircraft carrier strike groups is to be withdrawn from NATO plans. The reductions will also cover almost half of the cruiser and destroyer teams. The ability to launch cruise missiles from underwater units will also be removed from planning. The number of Boeing P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft will be reduced from 26 to just 15.
Bomber units
Of the two bomber groups, one will be completely withdrawn.
The American turn towards the Pacific is becoming more and more visible
The announced actions show that the United States is increasingly focusing its foreign and security policy on the Pacific region. This is where, from the point of view of military strategy, naval capabilities and air superiority are most needed.
Rafał Samluk / Reporting Team of the Operational Command of the Armed Forces
NATO Baltic Air Policing mission with the participation of F-16 fighters from Poland
For example, the Bundeswehr has patrol aircraft for maritime reconnaissance, but it only has eight of them, which does not meet the required scale of needs. Moreover, probably not all of these machines would be allocated to NATO.
NATO remains optimistic
The Alliance does not want to comment on the detailed numbers presented by the American side. NATO spokeswoman Allison Hart, however, tries to maintain an optimistic tone.
“There has been an over-reliance on U.S. forces and military capabilities in the past,” Hart said. — However, as defense investments in Europe and Canada increase and these countries expand their own capabilities, the balance of responsibility may change. Such a change strengthens NATO's defense plans because it reduces overdependence on a single ally and reflects a broader transformation taking place across the Alliance. The idea is to create a more durable and stable foundation for NATO's functioning for the coming decades, she added.
Europe has little time
An additional problem is a very tight schedule. Europe must quickly agree on how to fill the gaps that have arisen.
Further talks at the level of defense ministries are to be held in mid-June. Then, on July 7 and 8, a NATO summit will be held in Ankara with the participation of heads of state and government, during which the announcement of a common agreement is planned.
This means that From now on, there are only four weeks left to develop a common position and show the unity of the entire alliance.
How do the military react?
Although NATO does not officially comment on the detailed data presented by the Americans, no major panic can be noticed in talks with the Alliance's military.
New ideas emerge from time to time
– says one of the NATO soldiers. In his opinion, American plans may still change, and some of the announced cuts may ultimately turn out to be less severe than current assumptions.
However, many observers view hopes for a change in Washington's position with skepticism. Not only the current President of the United States, Donald Trump, but also Barack Obama have repeatedly emphasized that Europe should take greater care of its own security. For a long time, however, these appeals met with limited response on the European side.
Current plans show that Americans take this issue very seriously.
A complete US exit from NATO remains unlikely
Despite the announced reductions, a complete withdrawal of the United States from NATO seems unlikely. The Americans still intend to fill all key positions in the alliance's structures.
In addition to the position of Supreme Allied Commander Europe, currently held by General Alexus G. Grynkewich, United States representatives will continue to lead all tactical commands of the Army, Navy and Air Force.
Only the middle level of operational command, i.e. the so-called Joint Force Commands will remain entirely in European hands.
