Trump needs the war with Iran to end, but Tehran is not budging. Who is capitalizing on the conflict?
Although Washington and Tehran have signaled that they do not want a return to open conflict, temporarily suspended by the April 8 truce, tension in the region remains at alarming levels. The constant exchanges of fire have not completely stopped the negotiations brokered by Pakistan and Qatar, but the peace equation is becoming more difficult to solve.
Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu/PHOTO: EPA/EFE
The United States maintains massive naval and air forces in close proximity to Iran, a show of force intended to force concessions from the regime in Tehran. On the other hand, the Islamic Republic is using this respite to reorganize its forces and repair the damage caused by the US-Israeli strikes, clearly conveying that its will to resist is intact. In the event of an escalation, US bases and critical infrastructure in the Arab Gulf states remain viable targets for Tehran, the BBC reports.
The Lebanon trap and Benjamin Netanyahu's calculations
In this game of cat and mouse, Israel's moves significantly narrow Donald Trump's room for maneuver. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's announcement of resuming bombing of Beirut massively complicates the White House's diplomatic efforts.
For Netanyahu, a possible failure of the American-Iranian negotiations is not a problem; the Israeli leader viewed any agreement with Tehran skeptically from the very beginning, considering it a dangerous concession. Meanwhile, Iran continues to support Hezbollah and makes any extended deal with the US conditional on a definitive end to the Israeli offensive.
The Strait of Hormuz, the world's energy lung, blocked by hubris
The major stake in the negotiations remains the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, blocked by Iran after the February 28 attacks. Although Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates manage to divert some of the oil through alternative pipelines, the blockade is choking the world economy, wiping out about 20 percent of global oil and gas supplies.
Donald Trump is in a strategic deadlock. The war against Iran is deeply unpopular in the US, and prices at the pump are dictated by the global market, directly affected by the crisis. However, reopening the strait involves lifting sanctions or unblocking Iranian assets – measures harshly criticized by hawks in their own Republican Party.
Trump bristles at any comparison between his actions and the 2015 nuclear deal signed by Barack Obama, which he vehemently denounced. But the reality on the ground shows that the initial estimates of Washington and Tel Aviv – which counted on a quick aerial victory that would have led to the collapse of the regime – were deeply mistaken. Tehran is fighting for its ideological survival and will not just give in under the pressure of the bombs.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu orders strikes on Beirut suburbs. Residents leave the city in a hurry
Why is Israel the big winner from the shadows?
A cold assessment of the war objectives since the outbreak of the conflict shows a major discrepancy between the results achieved by the major actors involved. While the US pursued the nebulous goal of “regime change” and Iran fought strictly for survival, Israel made tangible geopolitical gains, the Daily Mail writes.
Maximum wear strategy
Tel Aviv's objective was to destroy the military capabilities of Iran and its regional allies. Unlike Trump, who promised the Americans a short war, Netanyahu needed the fighting to continue to grind down enemy structures.
Using a lethal combination of Mossad intelligence, Unit 8200 cyber attacks and artificial intelligence algorithms, Israel decapitated the Iranian leadership from day one, removing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Security Chief Ali Larijani and IRGC Navy Commander Alireza Tangsiri.
Skipping diplomatic costs
According to Pentagon data, Iran's military infrastructure — from air defense systems to drone and missile factories — is grounded. However, the diplomatic and financial burden of stabilizing the region and the thorny negotiations for denuclearization fall exclusively on Washington's shoulders.
The war also left deep consequences for the rich Gulf states, whose economic model based on foreign investment and stability was shaken. Their response to this crisis, however, was fragmented.
The United Arab Emirates strengthened its strategic alliance with Israel by accepting the deployment of the Iron Dome defense system and the IDF military on its territory.
Saudi Arabia chose a separate path. It launched retaliatory strikes against Iran, but signaled to Tehran through discrete channels that it was acting independently and not as part of the US-Israeli coalition.
The initial plan of the Trump-Netanyahu tandem, based on the premise that air superiority would quickly sweep away the nearly half-century-old Islamic regime, turned out to be a miscalculation. While Israel takes stock of its tactical advantages, the rest of the world, led by a US administration stuck in its own electoral promises, is reckoning with the economic and geopolitical costs of a far-from-resolved conflict.
