Tikhanovskaya’s visit, which was agreed upon after a call from the State Department, is from the same story

Macron called Lukashenko.

Three important details.

1. What they write about. Against the backdrop of the activity of the Russian Federation (Strategic Missile Forces exercises) and Kyiv’s harsh rhetoric on the Belarusian issue, there was a warning about the inadmissibility of deeper involvement in the war. Many people stop there. And they don’t understand a simple thing: if the conversation had only been in the form of “don’t even think about it,” they wouldn’t have picked up the phone in Minsk. And there is no point in calling Macron for this. Therefore, let's look further.
2. EU states are talking about a possible negotiation track with the Russian Federation. But the question is: who will call first? And here it is quite possible to convey certain theses to Moscow through a conversation with Lukashenko. And, perhaps, hear some information. Especially considering that official Minsk needs contacts with the EU.
3. The negotiation track between the United States and Belarus is underway. Polish is developing. And here in old Europe there is activity of Babariko’s group (read Germany). And France has ambitions to strengthen its position. Therefore, the third reason is to measure the possibilities of creating another track.

Therefore, Macron terminated the possibility of a negotiation track with the EU. Which, by the way, was written about in the press release.

This is not normalization – it is an assessment of positions and opportunities to start a conversation. Moreover, the assessment is from a tough position. Then they will watch.

And Tikhanovskaya’s visit to Kyiv, which was agreed upon so quickly after the State Department’s letter with a request to think about the transit of potassium, is partly from the same opera.

There is a difficult puzzle for Belarus' neighbors: to start the conversation from a position of strength, but not to go too far. Confirm that this conversation does not mean turning the page with Lukashenko (but to indicate the possibility of political drift). And, finally, expanding the field of maneuver of official Minsk, assess how ready it is to take advantage of the opportunities.

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