Raúl Castro, accused by the US of shooting down some planes in 1996 – pressure or prelude to a military operation?

The United States has accused former Cuban leader Raúl Castro of conspiracy to kill American citizens and other crimes related to the downing of two planes in 1996, which were flying between Cuba and Florida, the BBC writes.

The Americans accuse Castro and five others of shooting down the aircraft belonging to the Cuban-American group Brothers to the Rescue and killing four people, including three Americans.

Castro, now 94, was then head of the country's armed forces.

As the US seeks to exert increasing pressure on Cuba's communist regime, President Miguel Díaz-Canel called the accusations “a political maneuver, devoid of any legal basis”.

Speaking in Miami, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced that the US will also charge Castro with the destruction of aircraft and four individual counts of murder in connection with the deaths of Armando Alejandre Jr., Carlos Alberto Costa, Mario Manuel de la Peña and Pablo Morales.

“The United States and President Trump have not and will not forget their citizens,” Blanche said.

The charges can be challenged in a US court, with each felony charge carrying a maximum penalty of death or life in prison.

The new Justice Department charges target a key figure in Cuba's communist leadership as it faces intense pressure from the US to make significant political and economic reforms to the one-party regime there.

“I think the strategy is to gradually increase the pressure to the point where the Cuban government will give in and surrender to the negotiating table,” said Wiliam LeoGrand, an expert on Latin American politics at American University.

The US imposed sanctions on the country and an oil embargo to Cuba, leading to power outages and food shortages.

On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio sent a message to the Cuban people on the occasion of the country's independence day.

“President Trump offers a new path between the US and a new Cuba,” Rubio said.

Rubio told the island's citizens that a conglomerate run by the Cuban military, known as GAESA, is primarily responsible for the power outages and food shortages the country continues to endure.

GAESA owns or operates most of the lucrative segments of the Cuban economy, from ports to gas pumps and five-star hotels.

In response to Rubio's message, Díaz-Canel accused the US of lying and imposing collective punishment on the Cuban people.

Díaz-Canel also said Castro's indictment was used to “justify the folly of a military aggression against Cuba” and accused the US of distorting the facts surrounding the downing of the plane.

He argued that Cuba acted in “legitimate self-defense in its jurisdictional waters.”

Asked by reporters about the prospects of bringing Castro to the US to face charges, Blanche said there was a warrant out for his arrest.

He would not confirm whether the US would try to capture Castro, but said: “we expect him to appear here, on his own initiative or otherwise.”

American University's LeoGrande said he was convinced the US was prepared to capture the former Cuban leader “if the Cubans do not surrender to the negotiating table”.

In January, the US launched a military operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and bring him to the US after the Justice Department indicted him.

That has transformed Venezuela's relationship with Washington, something LeoGrande says is unlikely to have the same effect in Cuba, noting that Castro stepped down nearly a decade ago.

At nearly 95, Castro, the brother of the late Cuban leader Fidel Castro, remains an influential figure, recognized on the island as the “surviving leader of the Cuban Revolution.”

He relinquished his active government and party roles, but during his 2008-2018 presidency, he and former US President Barack Obama presided over a short-lived thaw in relations between Washington and Havana.

Blanche said she “will not compare the cases” between Castro's and Maduro's.

Cuba is unlikely to give up without a fight

The center in Miami, where US officials announced Raúl Castro's indictment, was packed with Cuban Americans, mostly representing Cuban-in-exile organizations that have for decades led the opposition to the Cuban government inside the United States.

Surrounded by photos of the four people who died in the 1996 crashes, many at the Miami event said they were thrilled by the news.

“It was time, 67 years of a criminal regime,” said Isela Fiterre. “Raúl Castro didn't just kill four people. Over many years, he killed countless people,” Fiterre said.

She said it's never too late for justice and she's grateful to the Trump administration for taking this step.

Another participant, Mercedes Puid-Soto, shared the same sentiments. “I'm very happy. Justice has been served,” she said. “It is very important that the families can close this chapter, and so can we Cubans.”

It remains to be seen “whether the Trump administration will use this indictment in a manner similar to the one used against Maduro as justification to conduct a military operation under the cover of law enforcement,” said Roxanna Vigil, an international relations researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“The Cuban regime is unlikely to surrender to the United States without a fight,” Vigil noted. “And any move that includes collaboration with the Cuban regime would be very difficult for the Cuban diaspora in the United States to accept.”

US and Cuban representatives, including Raúl Castro's nephew Raúl Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, have held “conversations” in recent months, but the US accusations against the former president are unlikely to facilitate those contacts.

On the contrary, the Cuban side has shown signs of further strengthening its “no surrender, no concessions” stance against US pressure, with Cuban state media strongly criticizing what it called “false accusations.”