Saudi Arabia under pressure. Riyadh is looking for new partners because Trump has failed

Ashley Davis3 weeks ago

0 34 5 minutes read

Driving along the west coast of Saudi Arabia from the million-strong city of Jeddah north to Yanbu, he crosses desert landscapes, passes herds of camels and exits to Mecca and Medina. Already many kilometers before Janbu the smell of oil hangs in the airalthough there are no mining installations or oil wells in the area.

Giant oil fields are located mainly in the east of the country, on the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia produces over 10 million barrels of oil per day — it is the largest producer of this raw material in the world.

Saudi Arabia's backup port

Already in 1975, by royal decree, a replacement port was built in Yanbu to be prepared in the event of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is strategic for global oil trade. Huge petrochemical plants have been built that can process and ship oil pumped throughout the Arabian Peninsula. The former port serving Medina, located on the famous Incense Way and the place of arrival of pilgrims from Egypt, has gained a new face.

However, the US and Israel's war on Iran has changed the rules of the game. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which Saudi oil was shipped around the world, severely limited production. Janbu, with its oil port, now plays a key role.

New housing estates, an airport and solar-powered seawater desalination plants have been built in Yanbu. Already during the Persian Gulf War in 1990, there were fears that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein might block the strait or destroy the local oil fields. Ultimately, the closure did not take place.

Currently, Saudi Arabia can pump up to 7 million barrels of oil per day through the pipeline to the port of Yanbu. While loading huge tankers, you can watch the ships gradually sink deeper and deeper, with the red line on the hull disappearing under the water.

Such a “supertanker” holds approximately 2 million barrels of oil. When only the gray color remains on the hull, it soon goes out to sea. Ships then head through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic to European destination ports, or south through the Red Sea towards Asia.

“What was happening was predictable”

“We knew exactly what was going to happen,” says an employee of an influential think tank in Riyadh, who does not want to be named. The Iranians clearly announced what they would do in the event of an attack: They will attack American allies and installations and block the Strait of Hormuz. – So what was happening was predictable.

There are several major think tanks in Saudi Arabia advising the royal family, such as the Gulf Research Center in Jeddah and the King Faisal Center in Riyadh. Their members and scientists currently think a lot but do not speak publicly.

Yanbu, a port in Saudi Arabia. Illustrative photoOle Dor / Shutterstock

The royal family also refrains from comments and reactions. Riyadh focuses on diplomacy and negotiationsaccording to sources from the royal palace, and does not want to get involved in the war. — The Americans are withdrawing, and we have to live with Iran as a neighbor, describes the approach of an insider from the court.

However, it is unofficially known that Prince Muhammad bin Salman feels disappointed and hurt. Even though he thought he was a friend of US President Donald Trump, this one seriously offended him. During one of his speeches in the US at the end of March, Trump said about the Saudi crown prince that he “must be up his ass now.” The prince should be grateful for the American interceptors that protect Saudi oil installations.

Meanwhile The Americans did not inform the Saudis about their plan to attack Iran in late February, although Gulf states and other Arab countries tried for weeks to dissuade Trump from doing so. In Riyadh, they are very good at distinguishing cause from effect.

That is why the news from the British Reuters agency dropped like a bomb on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia at the end of March, exactly during Trump's media attacks on the prince, carried out secret airstrikes on Iran in retaliation for Iranian attacks on American military bases, embassies and consulates, and oil installations in the country.

The New York Times also reported that Saudi air forces conducted direct attacks on Iran for the first time. According to the Wall Street Journal, the United Arab Emirates also attacked Iran independently. However, none of these reports provide detailed data or goals.

Riyadh reportedly informed Tehran in advance and threatened further attacks – such was the military action in March. Washington did not know about these actions. Since then negotiations are ongoing between Iran and Saudi Arabia, in which mediated by Beijing – admits the informant.

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The Chinese once played the role of mediators between the two sides, ending a 7-year period of cold relations. In March 2023, it was agreed to resume diplomatic relations. Now people are talking about “Beijing 2.0”. There is some respect in Riyadh for Iran's policy towards Israel and the US: — Iran has stronger cards in its hand.

New arrangements in the Middle East

Western diplomatic circles in the capital report that the heir to the throne wanted to devote only 10 percent to foreign policy. your time. After a failed intervention in the Yemeni civil war, global criticism following the murder of columnist and regime critic Jamal Khashoggi, and the scandal related to the mysterious resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Muhammad bin Salman announced that he intended to focus solely on internal reforms and the “Vision 2030” project, which is to make Saudi Arabia a modern and competitive country.

However, the war with Iran puts enormous pressure on him. Old alliances are being tested and the unity of the Gulf states has been put at risk following the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC on May 1. Saudi Arabia's dominant position in the region is in question.

While the Emirates are moving closer to Israel and the US, Saudi Arabia has taken a different path. There is a lot of talk about Pakistan these days. Not only because it was the only Muslim country that managed to negotiate a ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran – which, however, is already starting to falter – but also as a future strategic partner.

In September, Riyadh and Islamabad signed a mutual assistance pact that includes security cooperation. So far, the US has guaranteed Saudi Arabia's security.

Washington's failure to respond to the increasing attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels on Saudi oil installations has apparently prompted a change in thinking. Now Pakistan, which has nuclear weapons, is ready to protect Saudi Arabia and has already deployed its first soldiers and fighter jets there. If one country is attacked, the other will come to its aid – this is the agreement.

Trump has failed the Arabs

Returning to Janbu: this is the house where Thomas Edward Lawrence, known as the legendary Lawrence of Arabia, lived 110 years ago. A British officer, intelligence agent and archaeologist convinced Arab tribes to join the British in World War I to destroy the Ottoman Empire.

The house of Lawrence of Arabia in YanbuDie Welt

In return, the Arabs were promised the creation of a united Arab state. Lawrence assured that the British had no colonial ambitions in the region.

In fact, however, the British and the French were already secretly agreeing on the division of spheres of influence in the Middle East. The so-called the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916 provided for the division of territories among the Europeans, and the Arabs were divided into a number of states.

Donald Trump initially had a good chance of becoming a new hero of the Arab world as an advocate of pragmatic rapprochement with Israel. His saber dance in Riyadh in May 2017 was famous. However, the war with Iran ended these successes. The only common denominator between Trump and Lawrence of Arabia is the bitter disappointment of the Saudis.

Ashley Davis3 weeks ago

0 34 5 minutes read