Efforts to end the conflict between the US and Iran appear to have reached an impasse as the two sides exchanged fire in the Persian Gulf on Friday, and a US intelligence analysis concluded that Tehran could withstand a naval blockade for several months, reports Reuters.
A CIA assessment indicated that Iran would not suffer severe economic pressure from the US-imposed blockade of Iranian ports for about four more months, according to a US official familiar with the matter.
The US intelligence estimate suggests US influence over Tehran remains limited as the two sides try to end a conflict that is unpopular with the US electorate.
“The problem is they don't think they have to capitulate”
The confidential CIA analysis presented to administration policymakers this week concludes that Iran can withstand a US naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more serious economic difficulties, four people familiar with the document told The Washington Post, a finding that appears to raise new questions about President Donald Trump's optimism about ending the conflict.
The review by the U.S. intelligence community, whose secret assessments of Iran have often been more guarded than the administration's public statements, also found that Tehran still has significant ballistic missile capabilities despite weeks of intense bombing by the U.S. and Israel.
Danny Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran section of Israel's military intelligence services, said that even if the blockade lasted several months, it would not force the regime to comply with Washington's demands. “The problem is they don't think they have to capitulate,” he said.
An official denies the information: The blockade is causing “real damage”
A senior intelligence official called the “claims” of the CIA analysis “false”, saying the blockade was “causing real and aggravating harm – disrupting trade, crushing revenues and hastening systemic economic collapse”.
The past few days have seen the most intense outbreaks of violence in and around the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire took effect a month ago, and the United Arab Emirates was again the target of attacks on Friday.
Washington is awaiting Tehran's response to a US proposal that would formally end the war before talks begin on more contentious issues, including Iran's nuclear program.
The Americans waited for a response from Tehran on Friday
“We should hear something today. We're waiting for an answer from them,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Rome on Friday.
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said Tehran was still considering its response, and by mid-afternoon in Washington, just before midnight in Tehran, no response had been announced.
Meanwhile, there have been sporadic clashes between Iranian forces and US ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported. The Tasnim news agency later quoted an Iranian military source as saying the situation had calmed down, but warned that further clashes were possible.
The US military said it struck two Iran-linked ships trying to enter an Iranian port, with a US fighter jet hitting their smokestacks and forcing them to turn back.
Oil is at $101 per barrel
Iran has largely blocked non-Iranian shipping through the strait since the war began with joint US-Israeli airstrikes in Iran on February 28. The US imposed a blockade on Iranian shipping last month.
Oil prices rallied, with Brent crude futures topping $101 a barrel, though still down more than 6% this week.
Trump said Thursday that the truce still holds despite the incidents in the strait, which before the war handled a fifth of the world's oil supply.
The confrontation extended beyond the waterway. The United Arab Emirates said its air defense intercepted two ballistic missiles and three drones from Iran on Friday, injuring three people moderately.
