What impact can the crisis measures imposed by the government have on fuel prices? “It risks throwing Romania into a diesel shortage”

Analysts are harshly criticizing the measures the Government announced it would adopt on Tuesday to counter rising prices at the pump. Capping margins will lead directly to shortages, because “nobody is stupid enough to turn their business, at a loss, into a fiscal agent of the state”, believes economics professor Cristian Păun. He warns that the Government's measures could soon lead to the rationalization of fuel consumption.

The plan announced by the Government includes capping the commercial margins of companies at 50% of the average of the last 12 months, exports only with the approval of the Ministry of Economy and Energy, as well as the decrease from 8% to 2% of the bio component in gasoline.

“If you cap the addition at 50%, but keep the excise duty per liter untouched at a level almost double the minimum level of 1.8 lei as you agreed with the EU, if you don't let companies export oil products at better prices than yours in the country but you don't touch the surcharge applied to companies in the field, if you don't let them put more rapeseed oil in diesel but you don't touch the pillar tax applied to oil companies, it means that you have no idea why the price is high and it gets high quickly if the price of the raw material goes up. It means that you are ignorant or malicious”, says Cristian Păun, in a post on Facebook.

“The next step will be rationalization, with a card or with traffic restrictions”

He believes the effect may be shortages.

“No one is stupid to turn their business into a tax agent of the state at a loss. The purpose of a business is not to collect as much excise, pole tax or VAT as possible through price. The next logical step will be to rationalize consumption. Either with a card or with restrictions related to the use of the car for personal use. And obviously, when that happens, we will vilify the oil companies. It will be their fault, not yours, as a politician. Ignorant or evil on purpose”, Păun continued.

He also criticized the fact that, in the previous period, the public finances were looted, which now makes any tax reduction impossible or extremely expensive.

The measures “risk throwing Romania into a diesel shortage”

The opinion is also shared by Dumitru Chisăliță, president of the Intelligent Energy Association (AEI), who asks the Government not to adopt this ordinance, as it lacks a real impact on prices and risks throwing Romania into a diesel shortage.

“We request the initiation of a transparent dialogue with the representatives of the industry and consumers, with the realization of an impact analysis that assesses the risks to the security of supply and the stability of the market through the lack of concrete measures to combat the crude oil crisis and the identification of alternative, effective and sustainable measures to support consumers without affecting the functioning of the market”, says an open letter addressed to the Government by the mentioned organization.

AEI analyzes indicate that:

• “the proposed measures do not provide concrete and sustainable benefits for consumers and these will be canceled out by future price increases in just a few days;
• administrative interventions on the market can discourage imports and efficient distribution of petroleum products;
• there is a real risk of major supply disruptions, which could lead to shortages of diesel and gasoline in the coming months.”

“In an economic context already marked by uncertainty, we consider it essential that any government intervention be based on solid analyses, real consultations with industry players and careful assessment of the medium and long-term impact,” the letter addressed to the Executive also states.

What is trade margin and why it matters

The commercial margin is not the final profit of the distributors, but the gross difference between the purchase price and the selling price, the analysis of the profile organization shows.

In Romania, the typical gross margin in 2025 was approx. 0.10 – 0.70 lei/liter (1% – 7% of the final price. So, the real profit is extremely small, 2–30 lei per liter in some cases.

The AIE analysis shows that the 50% reduction in the margins of these companies does not lead to a decrease in profit, but directly to losses, and the result is inevitable: fuel volumes leave Romania or do not come at all.

“Even the Government does not know what the effects of the measures it is taking will be”

Analyst Adrian Negrescu also criticizes the fact that the Government did not come up with an impact study regarding these measures.

“The fuel ordinance, in the form to be approved today in the government, seems to have been built without an impact study (Minister Ivan told us that he does not know what the effects are). Beyond the positive measure of trying to control exports, all other decisions aimed primarily at the commercial addition will ultimately lead to shortages, to consumption rationalizations. The impact on the price at the pump is anyway symbolic, about 50 pennies per liter”, Negrescu said in a post on Facebook.

HotNews wrote on Monday that the Minister of Energy, Bogdan Ivan, organized a press conference to present the measures, but failed to explain what the effects will be at the pump.

“At the moment, all these measures have the role of stabilizing, but they cannot change the international dynamics of prices. The measures will have an impact of protecting the market and limiting the negative impact. If you want a definite figure, it would not be… To come back, so far we have proposed a broader set of measures that have been analyzed. Now we have a set of measures that we will adopt and we have another set of measures that, from my point of view, must be taken immediately,” said Ivan.

Journalists asked him if he can give assurances that the price will decrease with the implementation of these measures. “No,” Ivan replied.

“It can go down by a certain amount while the price of oil and diesel increases and covers that drop. It would be downright impossible for me to be able to guess how the increase in the international price of a barrel of oil can be in the next hours or days, I don't have a crystal ball. These measures limit the negative impact,” continued the Minister of Energy.

Meanwhile, fuel prices continue to rise

The price of fuel in gas stations continued to rise on Tuesday. Lukoil ticked off a spectacular increase of 23 banis per liter of diesel.

Thus, a liter of standard diesel now costs 10.22 lei at Lukoil stations, 10 lei at Petrom and 10.01 at Rompetrol, according to the Fuel Price Monitor application.

Premium diesel is sold for 10.58 lei at Lukoil, 10.57 lei at Rompetrol and 10.53 lei at OMV.

Standard gasoline has a price of 9.13 lei at Petrom, 9.21 lei at MOL, 9.26 lei at Rompetrol and 9.19 lei at Lukoil. The range of premium gasoline costs between 9.72 lei at Petrom and 9.99 lei per liter at Rompetrol.