Donald Trump is still floundering. Sometimes he announces a full economic blockade of Iran, and other times he boasts on his Truth Social platform that Iranian missiles “fell into the sea like butterflies.” Immediately afterwards, he suddenly stops the naval operation in the Persian Gulf, only to threaten to bomb again a few hours later. Chaos instead of strategy.
And Tehran? He remains surprisingly calm. Islamic leaders seem to have understood something that Trump refuses to see: Time is not on Washington's side. Works for Iran.
This is exactly what the secret CIA report leaked to the Washington Post shows and caused a real storm in Washington this week. A point-by-point analysis exposes Trump's war rhetoric. While the president has been suggesting for several days that Iran is practically militarily defeated, US intelligence services draw different conclusions: the regime is weakened, but it is far from collapsed.
According to the CIA Iran still holds approximately 70 percent. its missile arsenal and three-quarters of the mobile launchers. What is particularly disturbing is that, according to the report, Iran has “largely rebuilt” its underground storage facilities and is able to repair damaged missiles or assemble new ones. One U.S. official told the newspaper that Iran's situation “is not as catastrophic as some say.”
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Even more dangerous for Trump is the CIA's conclusion that Iran can withstand the American blockade for many months. At least three to four months, maybe longer. Oil is stored on tankers and new smuggling routes through Central Asia are being created. Iran is deliberately limiting production in individual oil fields to keep its infrastructure in good condition for longer – and it is counting on Washington to be the first to give in.
War may bring down Trump's party
Trump needs quick wins. Instead, he gets rising oil prices, nervous markets and increasing doubts about his strategy. The Strait of Hormuz is still a ticking bomb. And Trump himself, who promised his voters lower fuel prices, suddenly becomes the president of an expensive gas station pump.
And the congressional elections are getting closer. Many Republicans are getting worried. Trump's electoral base did not want a new war in the Middle East, and certainly not an arduous war of attrition without a clear goal.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently said openly that Washington had been “humiliated” by Tehran. In turn, during the last operation against Iran, Spain refused to allow the Americans to use common military bases – this is a unique affront in the relations between NATO allies.
China is already rubbing its hands
China is also observing this conflict with growing satisfaction. According to the New York Times The US has already used huge amounts of cruise missiles and precision munitions. In Beijing, military officials openly wonder whether Washington would be able to reliably defend Taiwan in a crisis.
Donald Trump, president of the United States, and Xi Jinping, president of China. Busan, South Korea, October 30, 2025EPA/YONHAP SOUTH KOREA OUT / PAP
For Xi Jinping, this is a treasure. While the US burns its resources in the Middle East, China continues to expand its position in the Pacific. Simultaneously Washington needs Beijing more than ever — for example on the oil market or in terms of pressure on Iran. This changes the balance of power in the world.
Iran's Islamic leaders don't have to defeat Trump. They just have to hold on long enough. Each day without a clear American success weakens Washington's position in the international, economic, military and political arena.
Trump only has bad options left
In fact, Trump only has three options left. First: escalation, i.e. further bombings and more severe attacks. Maybe even an attempt to change the regime. This would be extremely dangerous. The entire region could burst into flames.
Second: concluding an agreement. But likely on terms much weaker than Trump initially demanded. And that's what Tehran seems to be counting on. Iran is signaling its readiness to talk — but only on terms that actually maintain its nuclear program.
Or third: Trump will portray the stalemate as a victory. That would be his style. And therein lies the bitter irony surrounding this conflict. The president, who has always focused on pace, is now fighting a regime that focuses on the slow passage of time.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
