Trump will make every effort to sign a memorandum with Iran on a phased cessation of the war.
On May 13, he will go to Beijing to meet with Xi. And if you don’t sign the memorandum, then it will be a trip without “cards in hand.”
And this is an extremely uncomfortable “position” for Trump.
He urgently needs to show some results and declare “victory.”
Going to Beijing against the backdrop of an ongoing war is a failure. Not going and rescheduling the meeting again is a “loss of face.”
Therefore, a window of opportunity is opening for Iran to maximize its goals in this war.
The memorandum could include a partial lifting of sanctions on Iran and the release of its assets.
And if they convince you that this is a “victory for the United States,” think about the following analogy: as a result of a hypothetical military escalation of relations between the Russian Federation and the EU, sanctions on Russia are lifted and its assets are unblocked.
Whose “victory” will it be in this case? EU? Even if the missiles of European armies destroy several Russian factories.
So remember this analogy every time you are told about “US victory over Iran.”
What can Tehran offer the US?
Obviously, a fig leaf to cover up the defeat of the United States and Israel, which obviously did not achieve their key goals in this war: the removal of the political regime in Iran, the destruction of the Iranian nuclear and missile programs.
The regime in Tehran has not been displaced and has become even stronger. No one will curtail the missile program.
The fig leaf is Iran's commitment to introduce a moratorium on uranium enrichment for five or 12 years. And promise not to enrich uranium above a certain level.
Why can Iran “promise” this?
Because no one can really check this, there are no monitoring and verification mechanisms. And Tehran knows this. And in Washington they know. And in Israel they know.
At the same time, Iran understands that after Trump’s departure, the United States will not soon have a president who will decide on a new war in the Persian Gulf.
Even if J.D. Vance becomes the new president. Especially if J.D. Vance becomes the new president.
Source:
Analytics Kusha / Telegram
The blog reflects solely the opinion of the author. The editors are not responsible for the content and accuracy of the materials in this section.
