So that's it… and say no more.
In recent weeks, the Ukrainian military has carried out several dozen systemic, calculated strikes with UAVs and missiles along the entire chain of processing and transportation facilities for Russian oil and petroleum products – pipeline junctions, refineries, and sea export terminals in the ports of the Baltic and Black Seas.
Now there are too many different figures in the information space, which supposedly should characterize a decrease in production capacity, financial losses, damage to the budget, etc.
I would like to note that all these numbers are not actually static; they will change dynamically. And this is natural – after all, the Russian Federation is now trying to quickly repair what is possible, to carry out, so to speak, a maneuver through pipelines, etc.
You must understand that in the Russian Federation all indicators related to oil production, refining and exports are strictly classified. Therefore, any numbers or conclusions with reference to Russian sources may be targeted disinformation.
Of course, the Russian Federation suffered very significant losses. Which ones we will be able to assess, most likely, no earlier than in a month based on the volumes of real exports of oil and petroleum products, as well as the state of the corresponding domestic Russian market.
In our opinion, the main thing at the moment is that a certain excess of crude oil has formed in the Russian Federation, which cannot be processed at refineries due to their damage as a result of attacks. And, of course, the Russian Federation is trying to “push” this crude oil for export as much as possible. But even with this “pushing” due to damage to port terminals, we cautiously estimate the reduction in crude oil exports in April 2026 to be between 17-20%.
Further developments will depend on how much the Russian Federation can repair refineries and port terminals, and, of course, on how successful the further combat work of the Ukrainian military will be on the export capabilities of the Russian Federation, through which it finances the import of sanctioned goods for the production of missiles and other weapons that fly on the heads of Ukrainians every day.
Source: Andrii Klymenko / Facebook
Published with the personal permission of the author.
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