However, Trump did not specify whether he meant only Germany or other countries in Europe where American troops are stationed. He previously said probably [oprócz Niemiec] will also withdraw soldiers from bases in Italy and Spain.
— When analyzing Trump's statements, we should look not at the number of soldiers counted in thousands, but at the types of units that could be taken as a result – reserve captain Maciej Lisowski, an expert on armament, military, military and security, who runs the “Kapitan Lisowski” channel on YouTube, tells Onet.
Captain Lisowski: let's not promise each other anything
— Trump warned that he would do so, that he would withdraw troops from Europe, and now he is doing it because the leaders of European countries have clearly said “no” to his unexpected plans that were not agreed with other NATO members. This is, of course, about the war with Iran being waged by the US and Israel and the accusation of not helping it in these activities, explains Captain Lisowski.
Reserve captain Maciej LisowskiPrivate archive
“Trump will not touch these bases”
In Captain Lisowski's opinion, there are two important areas that the Americans are particularly careful about. — The first is their ability to have military exposure to Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Without military bases in Europe, this is difficult. Therefore, I doubt that the US will want to withdraw from its important bases on the Old Continent, he emphasizes and reminds us of the ongoing expansion of the infrastructure of US bases, including: in Spain and Poland. — Trump will not touch these bases because it is too important for him, he adds.
— From a base in Spain, U.S. forces can sail out toward the Mediterranean Sea to support and protect Israel. And this is still one of the most important points on Donald Trump's action list. Threats against Spain are therefore rather sabre-rattling in this regard, he emphasizes.
Captain Lisowski points out that the situation in Italy may be completely different. — Here we have an American air contingent and rotational naval forces, but smaller than at the Spanish Rota base. The air component at the Aviano base is the one that significantly strengthens the air defense capabilities of Europe and Italy itself. And this base is also important in the defense of Israel. There are also a number of other bases that Trump would be willing to reduce to a greater extent to remind Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni that she was his favorite, but is no longer her favorite because she stopped implementing his agenda, he explains.
— The second area important for the US are its army units, which are on rotation in Europe. The announcement of the reduction of US troops in Europe will probably concern the failure to send or bring back the US heavy brigade currently stationed here on rotation.. This is exactly what can happen in Germany. For Trump, this is a convenient solution and does not constitute a significant reduction in expeditionary capacity, he says.
Poland as a model ally
According to a military expert, there may be more behind the US president's plans than just frustration with the lack of aid in the Persian Gulf war.
— Trump needs operational troops in several other directions, especially on the border with Mexico. If it actually withdraws the brigade of operational troops that is in Europe on a rotational basis, and it does not go to us or the Baltic countries, but is brought from there, it will most likely go to the southern border of the USA to strengthen activities related to securing the border against illegal migration. This is how Trump will want to implement his plans aimed at the use of American society to improve the recent disastrous poll results, Captain Lisowski supposes.
In his opinion, there are currently no signs that Trump wants to reduce the number of US troops in Poland. – This would mean wasting hundreds of millions of dollars of their own funds and hundreds of millions of dollars of our funds for the development of infrastructure in Poland – he says.
— At the moment, we are still considered a model ally that implements American assumptions regarding defense spending. The large purchases of equipment we have placed with them are also important, he adds.
“Any loss will be felt”
— Trump's announcements are a painful but necessary impulse for Europe to count more on itself and focus on what it can do itself. We can already talk about an explosion of projects, economically much more interesting than the American ones and with parameters attractive enough to quickly fill the potential gap that will arise when the withdrawal of American units or types of weapons – he sums up.
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