Ole Hansen, director of commodity market strategy at Saxo Bank, points out that the foundations of the bull market in gold remain intact and the current phenomena are temporary.
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Oil and the dollar under pressure – what's holding back gold?
According to bank analysts, the main culprit of the current situation is not, contrary to appearances, geopolitical tensions, but the energy market and monetary policy. Brent crude oil price remaining above $100. and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the US and Iran have created a difficult environment for non-income generating assets.
“The rise in energy prices, the strengthening of the dollar, higher inflation expectations and the return of the scenario of prolonged high interest rates in the US have created more difficult conditions for non-income-generating assets,” says Ole Hansen.
The expert points out that gold's correction is cyclical, not structural. Although the bank's earlier forecasts assuming a price of PLN 6,000 dollars per ounce by the end of 2026 require revision in terms of growth rate, the direction of movement remains valid.
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Silver: greater profit, greater risk
The situation for silver is much more dynamic. This metal, due to its wide use in industry (especially in the photovoltaics sector), is more sensitive to economic turmoil. Hansen points out that the current declines are a “healthy correction” that has cleared the market of excessive speculative positions.
The key factors for silver are physical deficit, persistent green energy demand for solar equipment production, and higher vulnerability to periods of low liquidity and rapid price movements.
Is this the end of the bull market in precious metals?
According to Saxo Bank The bull market in precious metals has been “paused rather than ended.” In the short term, investors' eyes will be focused on the energy sector. Unblocking the Strait of Hormuz and a possible drop in fuel prices – which in the case of diesel and jet fuel are approaching $200. per barrel – could become a strong growth impulse for gold.
“Gold remains lagged but not stopped, and its fundamentals remain strong. Silver still offers significant growth potential, but after previous excesses it remains more sensitive to macroeconomic factors and volatility in investor sentiment” – sums up Hansen.
Investors must therefore prepare for greater volatility, remembering that the factors driving growth in the last two years are still present in the global economy.
