The war in Iran has reached a stage where there is no point in worrying too much about daily changes in the situation. Today's news often becomes irrelevant tomorrow: as when the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was ceremoniously ended on the weekend, only to be restored the next day. Political statements and reality often diverge, and mutually exclusive positions emerge from the leaders of the warring sides. We are all a bit lost in the fog of war.
However, the basic contours of the situation, which has remained essentially unchanged for several weeks, should not be lost. The war did not result in a decisive defeat for the Iranian regime, but Americans are unable to withdraw from it, even though they clearly would like to. It is confirmed that conflicts are easy to start, but it is much more difficult to end a war.
Tehran sabotaged the US government's efforts to reach a second round of peace talks in Pakistan. American Vice President JD Vance was ready to fly out to negotiations, but the Iranian authorities were not interested. And how did Donald Trump react when his ultimatum expired unsuccessfully on Wednesday? He extended the truce, this time without a specific deadline.
Iranian authorities have simply concluded that Trump's threats to destroy Iranian civilization and its entire energy infrastructure are just boasts. What if he followed through on those threats anyway? The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps assumes that this would harm civilians, not themselves, and therefore the regime itself. Since the Islamic revolution, they are accustomed to surviving under the pressure of sanctions and wars and believe they have greater resilience than Trump, who is under pressure from upcoming elections and public opinion.
The Strait of Hormuz is therefore closed, and the first fees paid by ships from “friendly” countries for the passage are transferred to the Iranian state treasury. At the same time, there is an ongoing blockade led by the US Navy, the aim of which is to stop Iranian exports of raw materials. The result is high oil prices, concerns about food security in poorer countries and warnings from airlines about jet fuel shortages. Therefore, the pressure to open the Strait of Hormuz will continue to increase.
If an agreement is finally reached, it will be difficult to make concessions from Tehran – and it will set a price that will put it in a much stronger position than before the war.
It is possible that Iran will be pressured into negotiations by China, which is its strategic partner and at the same time cares about stability in the Middle East.
The second alternative is military escalation, which is unlikely to lead to the collapse of the regime without a massive land invasion. Moreover, Iran warns that in such a case, with the help of Yemen's Houthis, it will also close navigation through the equally important Bab al-Mandab Straitthrough which ships enter the Red Sea. In the third scenario, Trump would allow the war to “die out” and the current situation, Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz, would become the new norm.
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Iran has lost important security guarantees in recent years as Israel dramatically weakened its allies in the region, and last year, in cooperation with the US, significantly damaged its nuclear program. But now the regime has created a new safeguard: the Strait of Hormuz. If the Iranian regime's primary goal was to deter the United States—and through it Israel—from future attacks, it has clearly succeeded in achieving that. American presidents will think carefully next time whether to engage in a fight with the mullahs.
In the long term, however, even Tehran cannot feel safe. As the fog of war lifts, the causes that have led to increasingly powerful waves of anti-regime protests will reemerge: economic collapse and the hatred that most Iranians feel for their rulers. There is no certainty that more riots will not break out soon and that cracks will not appear in the regime.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
