According to the Washington Post, citing sources in the Ministry of Defense, the pessimistic scenario was presented to members of the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee.
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This time frame means that the global economy must prepare for persistent problems with oil supplies and high fuel prices at least until the end of 2026.
Frustration on Capitol Hill and Iran's technological trap
During Tuesday's briefing, Pentagon officials revealed that Iran has deployed at least 20 advanced naval mines in the strategic isthmus. Some of them were placed remotely using GPS technology, which made them almost invisible to American detection systems at the time of deployment. The remaining loads were to be dropped from the decks of small motorboats.
The situation is complicated by a fact reported by the New York Times: there is a high probability that Iran itself will not be able to find all the explosives it has deployed.
Such uncertainty turns one of the world's most important waterways into a minefield of unknown risk.
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Divergent messages: Trump versus the military
As the Washington Post reminds us, US President Donald Trump recently reassured on the Truth Social platform, claiming that “Iran, with US help, has already removed or is removing all naval mines”. This version was partially confirmed by Admiral Bradley Cooper, head of the US Central Command, assuring that the number of mines is within the limits of American operational capabilities.
However, the Pentagon points out that As long as the armed conflict continues, it is too risky to send bomb disposal divers, drones and helicopters for a full-scale cleanup operation.. This means that the strait will remain a global energy bottleneck long after a possible ceasefire is signed.
Political time bomb in the USA
These reports are of critical importance for the American political scene. The specter of expensive gasoline, which persists for the following months, directly affects Republicans before the November congressional elections.
“It's a signal that gasoline and oil prices may remain elevated long after any peace agreement is reached,” the Washington Post emphasizes.
The U.S. military is currently considering using a combination of special forces, including divers, and autonomous underwater systems to gradually restore safe navigation. However, with the lack of a mine map and ongoing firefights, a return to full capacity in the Strait of Hormuz seems a long way off.
