Axel Bojanowski is the chief reporter in the science department of the newspaper “Die Welt”.
Breaking news of 11 dead or missing US space, defense and nuclear scientists make a disturbing impression. Media around the world are reporting that the US government intends to investigate this “mysterious series.”
Fox News reports a “growing list” of academics “who may have been involved in secret projects.” The New York Post and other media also see “too many coincidental similarities.” The German media also reports on the matter in a similar tone.
In fact, however, these are isolated cases from the last four years, involving a very wide range of people. The official rates of deaths and disappearances in the US are so high that 11 such cases are within the limits of statistical probability. Moreover, the causes and circumstances of these events are very different: there were suicides, natural deaths, solved murders and disappearances.
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“Random coincidences.” Hundreds of thousands of people work in these institutions
Authorities found no evidence of a common motive or perpetrator. President Trump also talked about “random coincidences.” He assured that he wanted the matter clarified quickly, but at the same time emphasized that there is no evidence of a connection between these cases.
Taking into account all scientists employed at institutions such as Los Alamos National Laboratory, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology or California Institute of Technology, the number of 11 such cases is within statistical limits. Hundreds of thousands of people work in these institutions.
Scientists in the laboratory. Illustrative photoGorodenkoff / Shutterstock
Even if we limit the analysis only to those departments of institutes that deal with space, defense or nuclear technology, the number of employees is still in the tens of thousands. Five of the eleven researchers came from Los Alamos National Laboratory, where approximately 17,000 people work. people, and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which employs approx. 5.5 thousand. people. These scientists died or disappeared in completely different circumstances within three years.
FBI statistics help explain this phenomenon
According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the US agency for disease control, and the National Crime Information Center database run by the FBI, the homicide rate in the US in 2024 was approximately 5.9 per 100,000. inhabitants, and the number of disappearances – 29 per 100 thousand.
With approximately 23,000 employees in these two research departments within three years can be expected three to four murders and five to six disappearancesi.e. a total of approximately nine cases. The expected number of such events for these two institutes therefore exceeds five.
The remaining six cases concern various, including large, organizations. Each of these cases had different causes. Only two of the 11 scientists died in the violencefive are listed as missing.
For small groups of several thousand people, 11 such cases would be statistically unusual, but there is no information that they all belonged to a small, “elite” group.
Similar deaths in the USA do not make headlines, although they could be reported on an ongoing basis in other, equally important professions. A random list of 11 such cases could be made just as easily for other large groups. There is no statistical anomaly in the current situation.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
