As reported by Reuters, based on confidential sources, Russia noted in April this year decrease in production by 300-400 thousand barrels per day compared to the first quarter results.
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This is the deepest collapse since 2018.and comparing these numbers with the end of 2025, we are talking about a deficit of up to 500-600 thousand. barrels per day.
Drone war paralyzes ports and refineries in Russia
The main cause of the Kremlin's problems this time are not global trends, but precise strikes by Ukrainian drones. Kiev targeted Western export terminals and processing plants, sparking a series of devastating fires.
The attacks hit key points on Russia's energy map: ports in the Leningrad Oblast, Primorsk on the Baltic Sea and Novorossiysk on the Black Sea.. Recently, the port of Wysock has also been included on the list of targets.
Russian anti-aircraft defense, although it declares successes – according to local media, it was shot down in March 11,211 Ukrainian drones — is clearly unable to fully secure strategic facilities. The result is not only a decline in production, but also a paralysis of land routes; exports suffered, among others, by closing the damaged Druzhba pipeline supplying Hungary and Slovakia.
Budget on a drip
For Moscow, this is a blow to the very heart of the economy – oil from Western Siberia generates approx 25 percent budget revenues. Although physical exports are decreasing, the Kremlin hopes that the losses will be compensated by the rising price of raw materials, which is the result of tensions in the Middle East.
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Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov directly admitted that “high fuel prices will help Moscow reduce its budget deficit”.
Pessimistic forecasts for the Kremlin
Despite hopes for higher margins, analysts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) warn that returning to previous processing capacities will be extremely difficult. Experts predict that by the end of the year, the supply of Russian oil will fall by another 120,000. barrels per day.
“Russia may have difficulties in the near future in increasing production above the levels seen at the beginning of the first quarter,” the IEA estimates in its report.
Currently, production estimates vary due to the information blockade introduced by Moscow. While the IEA rates March production at 8.96 million barrels per dayOPEC indicates level 9.167 million. Regardless of the methodology, the trend is clear: the Russian mining industry, after the pre-pandemic post-Soviet peak, is again shrinking under the influence of isolation and warfare.
