The Strait of Hormuz Crisis. Why Iran suddenly changed its attitude and decided to close the strategic sea route

Iran announced a day ago that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz after a brief period of allowing transit through this waterway crucial to the world energy market, citing “repeated breaches of trust” by the United States.

President Donald Trump played down the significance of the shutdown and insisted the US would not be blackmailed by the move.

Tehran has specified that the blockade it imposed on Saturday will last until the US lifts the blockade on Iranian ports, with the truce set to expire on Wednesday.

The shipowners were cautious and did not rush to cross the strait. About 20,000 sailors are stuck in the Persian Gulf waiting to cross, shipping industry sources told Reuters.

A senior Iranian official told CNN on Saturday that Tehran will prioritize the passage of ships that pay to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

Ships attacked in the Strait of Hormuz

International media reported that shortly after Iran announced the new blockade, at least two ships were attacked. TankerTrackers.com, a company that monitors oil shipments, noted that two Indian-flagged ships sailing through the strait had turned back, according to The New York Times.

A maritime watchdog run by the British Navy, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, said it had received information that an oil tanker had been attacked by two Iranian warships. Another ship, a container type, was hit by an “unknown projectile”, he said.

According to data provided by Kpler, a global maritime traffic monitoring company, 17 ships crossed the strait on Saturday before Iran declared it closed, and 10 crossed it on Friday after it briefly lifted restrictions.

Why has Iran suddenly changed its attitude

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may have taken “control” of Tehran's negotiating position, according to the Institute for the Study of War, Sky News reports.

ISW analysts say it is likely that IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi and members of his inner circle have “secured at least temporary control” of Iran's military response and negotiating position.

Saturday's attacks on several merchant ships by the IRGC Navy marked a sharp shift from Iran's previous position that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open,” the Institute notes.

The announcement regarding the opening of the strait was made a day ago by the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi.

IRGC-affiliated media also reported that Iran did not agree to participate in a new round of negotiations with the US due to “excessive” demands.

According to ISW, Saturday's attacks were likely designed to gain an advantage over the US and strengthen the IRGC's control over Iran's negotiating policy.

Iran's threats

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has threatened that the navy will inflict “further painful defeats” even as the US claims to have almost completely eliminated Tehran's naval forces.

According to The New York Times, the Revolutionary Guard still has a so-called “mosquito fleet,” consisting of speedboats equipped with machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades and, more recently, missiles and drones.

“Their arsenal poses a threat to merchant shipping and 'remains a destabilizing force,'” Admiral Gary Roughead, former head of US naval operations, told the NYT.

Triumphant speech on Iranian state television

The Secretariat of Iran's Supreme National Security Council said in a statement that the government is “currently analyzing” new proposals submitted by the United States through Pakistan, which hosted peace talks late last week.

Late Saturday night, in a speech broadcast by state media, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran's Parliament, presented the ceasefire as a victory for his country and emphasized “control over the Straits,” saying the United States and Israel had failed to topple the government or gain international support in the Strait of Hormuz area.

“When the enemy fails to achieve its objectives, it means that it has been defeated,” he declared.

Ghalibaf said in his address to the nation that Iran, which he described as the one who won on the battlefield, was now ready to follow the path of diplomacy, stating that the military was ready to act. “We are fully prepared; if they make the slightest mistake, we will respond with full force,” he said.

The “asymmetrical war” strategy invoked by Iran

Tehran will respond to any US actions it considers a ceasefire violation, including demining operations in the area, the Iranian official insisted.

He acknowledged that Iran could not match the United States in terms of military resources or equipment, but compensated for this difference with the strategy of “asymmetric warfare.”

Iran's chief negotiator also said talks with the United States had made some progress but were still far from a final deal, with key issues unresolved on both sides.

He said any deal would need to proceed step by step with reciprocal actions, adding that the United States must “earn the trust of the Iranian people” and abandon what he described as unilateral and coercive approaches.