Banks as a shield of the state. The new role of financiers in times of great uncertainty

Banks are becoming an element of the state's economic security infrastructure, but they must be development institutions to a much greater extent than before. There will be an increase in the willingness of consumers to save, which will have a positive impact on bank deposits, experts said during the 31st Banking & Insurance Forum.

Bożena Graczyk, vice-president of ING Bank Śląski, believes that the ability to adapt in conditions of constant change is now becoming an element of competitive and strategic advantage among banks.

“Anyone who currently manages the bank's balance sheet and manages the bank's strategy no longer looks only through the prism of capital and liquidity capacity, but primarily through the prism of the ability to reduce operational risks. This is a new element that has always accompanied us, but now it is becoming much more important,” Graczyk said at the Banking & Insurance Forum.

“We entered 2026 with great optimism about the possibility of economic growth, the development of financial markets, the growth of lending, the development of the economy, and the events of several days in March caused these paradigms to change a bit and change,” Graczyk said.

In her opinion, the banking sector is becoming an element of the state's economic security infrastructure. However, she assessed that the banking sector's ability to generate capital and support economic development was decreasing.

“Even though the Polish banking sector is consolidating, increasing its role, it is larger, has much larger capital, bank valuations are increasing, but it only provides the ability to finance about 30 percent of the largest investment projects,” Graczyk said.

The President of Citi Handlowy, Elżbieta Czetwertyńska, drew attention to the currently changing role of banks.

“At the moment, banks have to position themselves more as business partners, deal with consulting, risk management and help clients run their businesses in this new reality, which is not easy for anyone,” said Czetwertyńska.

According to PKO BP chief economist Piotr Bujak, banks have a much more important role to play in the economy.

“Banks must become a development institution to a much greater extent than before, because public finances are under great pressure and will be under even greater pressure in the coming years, in the next decade. EU funds will become less important and weaker development mechanism in our economy with each subsequent year, and especially in the next decade, and this creates room for banks to play a much more active role,” said Bujak.

“Banks must have space and an appropriate regulatory and legal environment to grow faster,” he added.

VeloBank's chief economist, Piotr Arak, pointed out that a longer stay of interest rates at a higher level has a positive impact on banks' financial results. In his opinion, due to the current geopolitical situation, banks' lending may be weaker.

“The fuel crisis means that the entire supply chain, including those related to the automotive sector, will be postponed by the consumer. The consumer will not buy cars because he will be afraid to pay more,” Arak said.

“In Poland, we will probably also see a greater willingness to save. Saving, probably not investing in the stock market, the stock market, which has very poor results. This factor, from the banks' perspective, is not entirely negative, because it means that deposits will grow, perhaps to a similar extent as in previous years, when we had salary increases,” he added.

Last week, the President of the National Bank of Poland, Adam Glapiński, said that he did not expect any change in interest rates, either up or down, in the near future. (PAP Business)

seb/ ana/