A new record for bond sales in 2026? PKO BP forecasts a huge increase in interest

Sales of retail treasury bonds in 2026 should increase to PLN 91 billion and thus set a new record – predicts PKO Bank Polski.

As PKO Bank Polski recalled, in the first quarter of 2026, sales of retail treasury bonds in Poland reached PLN 19.1 billion, which means an increase of 10%. on an annual basis. “High sales reduce the risk of financing the state's borrowing needs. The March sales increase confirms the retail segment's resistance to growing geopolitical risk. Sales of securities in 2026 should increase to PLN 91 billion, setting a new record,” bank analysts believe.

They pointed out that the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the increase in prices of energy raw materials had temporarily increased the demand for inflation-linked securities. “As a result, we recorded the first monthly increase in net sales of Four-Year COI Indexed Bonds since February 2024,” they said.

According to bank representatives, the growing scale of retail bond issues increases competition for savings and intensifies the crowding out effect of bank deposits. At the same time, they added that the impact of this phenomenon on banks' financing costs remains moderate. “NBP rate cuts worsen the relative attractiveness of the shortest and floating-coupon retail bonds, while three-year fixed-interest TOS bonds remain popular,” experts said.

According to PKO BP, in 2026 demand for retail bonds should be supported by a solid increase in real incomes, stabilization of the National Bank of Poland rates and further accumulation of savings. “However, the market is approaching a phase in which the higher cost of retail financing, greater sensitivity of investors to market conditions and the growing volatility of debt servicing costs may limit the space for further expansion of the Ministry of Finance,” the bank's experts emphasized.

At the end of January, the Ministry of Finance informed PAP that Frapproximately PLN 57 billion is the estimated value of the redemption of retail bonds in 2026, although he stipulated that this amount may change. A year earlier, bonds worth PLN 32.9 billion matured, and in 2024 – PLN 25.2 billion. In the justification for this year's budget act, the Ministry of Finance assumed a positive balance on the sale and redemption of savings bonds in the amount of almost PLN 35 billion. This means that this year the Ministry of Finance wants to sell treasury bonds for approximately PLN 92 billion.

Last year, buyers bought savings bonds for PLN 74.9 billion. As the Ministry of Finance reported in mid-January, this is the second highest sales result in history. “It is worth noting how large this increase has been over 10 years – since 2015 (PLN 3.2 billion of bonds sold), the sale of our bonds has increased more than 23 times to the level of nearly PLN 75 billion in 2025,” said Deputy Minister Jurand Drop, quoted in the then press release.

The most frequently purchased in 2025 were three-year fixed-rate bonds, the sales of which amounted to almost PLN 27.8 billion. The second most popular were annual bonds with an interest rate equal to the NBP reference rate, the sales of which reached almost PLN 26.55 billion. The third most frequently purchased were 4-year securities with interest rates dependent on inflation, which were sold for almost PLN 7.74 billion.

Moreover, in 2025, buyers purchased 10-year bonds with a coupon dependent on inflation for almost PLN 5.6 billion, two-year bonds with an interest rate based on the NBP reference rate plus a small margin – for almost PLN 3.9 billion, as well as three-month bonds for over PLN 2.3 billion. Bonds intended for beneficiaries of the Family 800+ program for over PLN 1 billion also found buyers. (PAP)

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