How much oil did the world lose in the 50 days of the Persian Gulf War? The effects will be felt even for several years
The effects of the energy crisis caused by the war between Iran on one side and the US and Israel on the other side will be felt for months and even years, with the world losing $50 billion worth of oil in the nearly 50 days of war, a Reuters analysis shows.
Since the crisis began in late February, more than 500,000,000 barrels of oil and condensate have not reached the global market, the largest energy disruption in modern history, according to Kpler data.
The 500 million barrels lost are equivalent to:
- global aviation demand for 10 weeks; no vehicle in the world for 11 days or no oil for the world economy for five days, said Iain Mowat, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie;
- US oil demand for nearly a month or more than a month for all of Europe, according to Reuters estimates;
- US military six-year fuel consumption, based on use of 80,000,000 barrels in fiscal year 2021;
- fuel needed by marine vessels around the world for four months
A slow recovery
The Gulf Arab countries lost 8,000,000 barrels of crude oil production per day in March, equivalent to the combined production of Exxon Mobil and Chevron, two of the world's largest oil companies.
Kerosene exports from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman fell from 19,600,000 barrels in February to just 4,100,000 barrels in March and April combined, according to Kpler. The losses are the equivalent of about 20,000 flights between New York and London, Reuters calculated.
With the price of a barrel hovering around $100 since the conflict began, the volume of oil that has not reached the markets represents $50 billion in lost revenue, said Johannes Rauball, an analyst at Kpler. The amount is equivalent to 1% of Germany's GDP or the entire GDP of smaller countries such as Latvia or Estonia.
Even though Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi declared the Strait of Hormuz open, the return to previous production and flows will be slow.
For the more viscous oil fields in Kuwait and Iraq, it is estimated that it will take 4-5 months for production to return to normal. Also, the damage to the refineries and gas liquefaction complex in Ras Laffan (Qatar) could be fully repaired within a few years.
