Donald Trump and the split in the MAGA movement. Conservatives are increasingly divided
At the Turning Point USA (TPUSA) convention in Phoenix in December, the coalition that brought Donald Trump to the White House began to show signs of serious strain.
“I didn't come here with a list of conservatives to condemn or exclude,” Vance said at the time.
Today, TPUSA returns to Phoenix for the “Build the Red Wall” event, which takes place at a megachurch and is headlined by Trump. But in the four months since Turning Point last met in Arizona, those initial cracks have grown into a web of splits in the conservative movement.
As these divisions deepen among the president's voters ahead of this fall's congressional elections that will determine the balance of power in Washington, everyone is watching to see whether Trump will confront these divisions head-on — or simply ignore them.
“I don't see anything that would bring everyone together and make the MAGA coalition work as a whole,” says one Republican Party staffer.
So far, the strategy of the White House and the MAGA machine has been to strike twice.
First, they argue that Trump is MAGA and there is no split.
“President Trump created the greatest political movement in history, MAGA, and remains the undisputed leader of the Republican Party,” White House spokeswoman Liz Huston wrote in a statement to us. — “The president is committed to maintaining a Republican majority in Congress and continuing to lower the cost of living for working families.”
Trump's chief pollster, Jim McLaughlin, echoes this narrative. “The truth is that there are no real divisions among MAGA supporters,” he argues. — The vast majority of them support President Trump and his policies.
What about the ecosystem of popular and influential conservative commentators who once helped Trump win but are now unfavorable to him? This is where the second part of the strategy comes into play: claiming that these people are no longer part of MAGA.
Months after Vance warned against creating lists of people to “condemn and exclude,” the president is doing just that.
“Tucker is a low IQ person – always easy to beat and highly overrated!!! Same goes for Megyn Kelly, 'Candace' (Really Stupid and Mentally Ill!) and the broke Alex Jones who is completely 'burned out'. There are others too!” — Trump wrote on Truth Social yesterday morning. “But we also have some who are VERY GOOD, real MAGA and intelligent. I should make a list of the good, the bad and those in between. Wouldn't that be fascinating???”
Not everyone in the White House pretends the problem doesn't exist. At a TPUSA event in Georgia earlier this week, Vance warned young people not to “get into the dark” and acknowledged that “many young voters are not thrilled with our Middle East policy.”
– I'm not saying that you have to agree with me on everything – emphasized the vice president, a strong supporter of isolationism and the biggest skeptic of military action against Iran in Trump's inner circle. — What I mean is, don't get discouraged just because you disagree with the administration on one issue.
Trump's entourage rightly notes that the president has a devoted base that will follow him blindly. But in a congressional election year, when Trump himself is not running, such voters tend to stay home.
— Trump and his staff are investing time and resources to mobilize voters who only voted in 2024 but didn't show up in 2022, says another Republican activist.
That's also the goal of today's TPUSA convention: to increase turnout in congressional elections, especially in swing states like Arizona, by linking Trump to the election even though he won't be at the top of the ticket. The president will be accompanied on stage by Arizona Republicans, including former gubernatorial candidate Andy Biggs.
“When Trump is in town, things get heated,” says longtime Arizona Republican strategist Stan Barnes. – He can get a crowd going.
