According to the analysis of the Latvian Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) in 2022-2025, the authorities in Moscow were forced to spend $130 billion on additional imports. The sanctions also resulted in a significant reduction in exports and the freezing of assets in Western banks, which generates further economic losses.
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Russia spends billions on imports
Latvian analysts have estimated that the annual costs for Russia related to the purchase of goods from alternative sources amount to approximately $32.5 billion. The report emphasizes that the presented calculations concern only additional expenses for goods imported to the Russian Federation and do not take into account situations in which Russia failed to find substitutes for imported goods. International sanctions have limited Moscow's access to key export markets, which, according to forecasts by Russian institutions, may result in further hundreds of billions of dollars in losses by 2030.
The SAB analysis indicated that Russian loss forecasts may be underestimated. Analysts emphasized that internal reports do not take into account the full impact of sanctions on the economy, such as a decline in tax revenues or an increase in retail prices.
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Export problems and the energy sector
The sanctions particularly affected the Russian energy industry, which is responsible for 15-20 percent. GDP and one third of revenues to the federal budget. A Latvian report predicts that with further pressure from the West, this sector may lose $216.5 billion. within five years.
At the same time, Russia is having difficulty finding new markets for its raw materials. Between 2021 and 2025, iron ore exports decreased by 40%, and wood and cellulose exports dropped by half.
“SAB estimates that the lifting of Western sanctions would significantly increase the threat from Russia not only to Ukraine and Europe, but also on a global scale,” wrote the authors of the report. It indicated that the Kremlin could then more freely support countries such as Iran, North Korea, Venezuela or Cuba.
Putin criticizes officials for economic results
On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke harshly about the results of the national economy. He emphasized that in January and February the country's GDP shrank by 1.8%. “This is not only a result worse than the expectations of experts and analysts, but also than the government's forecasts.” Putin said.
Russia is struggling with economic difficulties on many fronts, and Western sanctions are putting increasing pressure on its finances and export capabilities. SAB's analysis indicates that these effects may be even more severe than the official forecasts of the Russian authorities.
The above text is a translation from American edition of Business Insider
