Election results in Hungary. The analyst predicts what the coming days and months will bring
The mentioned scenario is the so-called constitutional majority. Preliminary data from the National Electoral Office based on almost 99%. votes cast in Sunday's parliamentary elections in Hungary indicate that TISZA will have this majority.
Read more: Election results in Hungary. A crushing difference and a declaration towards Poland and the EU
As Michał Jóźwiak explains, it would enable, among other things, changing the provisions of the constitution without the consent of the opposition or adopting and amending “cardinal laws”, i.e. regarding, among others, electoral law, the status of public media, the competences of courts and some tax and budget issues. However, the expert emphasizes that and without this, a significant warming of relations between Budapest and Brussels would be expected.
Will Hungary receive billions from the European Union?
“In the next few months, this should lead to the unlocking of EUR 8.4 billion from the Cohesion Fund and EUR 9.5 billion from the RR [Instrument na rzecz Odbudowy i Zwiększania Odporności — red.]as well as approval of the low-interest loan plan under the SAFE program (EUR 17.4 billion). This would constitute a significant growth stimulus for the Hungarian economy,” explains the Ebury expert.
Peter Magyar himself has already announced that he will unblock EU funds.
See also: What does a potential change of power in Hungary mean for Poland? “There are risks”
Will the war in Iran weaken the market reaction?
Michał Jóźwiak points out that although TISZA's victory is partly valued by investors, expects a strengthening of the forint and profits on the Hungarian stock market, and given the constitutional majority “the scale should be significant.”
“The key should be greater predictability of government actions, dynamic implementation of rule of law reforms and reducing the risk associated with the country's investments,” he explains.
However, he adds that “profits may be limited by negative news regarding the US-Iran trade negotiations, which will most likely result in another risk-free move on global markets”.
