How Viktor Orbán stayed in power for 16 years and why he is in danger of losing in Sunday's election

In his four terms as prime minister, Orbán built a captured state, becoming an inspiration for the nationalist radical right around the world. Amid economic problems and allegations of corruption, his popularity has waned, and Hungary's April 12 election, polls say, may bring a change.

For nearly 16 years, Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party have ruled Hungary without fear of opposition, but Sunday's election represents the toughest test of his long reign.

If the polls in recent months hold true, then the opposition Tisza party, led by former Fidesz man Péter Magyar, has a chance to take power.

For Tisza there are reasons for optimism. After four terms, Orbán suffered an inevitable erosion. Accusations of corruption hang heavy, EU funds are partially blocked. The economy is not doing well, and this is felt in the pockets of Hungarians.

There are other signs as well. Fidesz's once formidable election campaign did not go as well this time, the voters did not seem convinced.

Even so, observers prefer to remain cautious and not automatically bet on a regime change in Budapest, and this also says something about the aura of Viktor Orbán.

A young anti-communist

Born on May 31, 1963 in a village located an hour away from Budapest, Orbán made a name for himself as a young liberal when he challenged the communist regime in Budapest in June 1989 with a fiery speech calling for democracy, writes AFP.

A year earlier, this Budapest University law graduate, who received a Soros Foundation scholarship to study at Oxford, co-founded the Alliance of Young Democrats (Fidesz).

However, he quickly veered towards a discourse that defended family, rural and Christian values.

A stake that paid off, as he was elected deputy, then appointed prime minister in 1998, at only 35 years old.

Four years later, he was defeated by the Socialist Party, the successor to the communists, then again in 2006. A humiliation that accelerated his transformation.

State capture

Returning to power in 2010 amid the collapse of the Socialists, who never recovered, while the country was deeply shaken by the economic crisis, Orbán began to consolidate his party's control over the media, the judiciary, state institutions and universities in the name of saving the “Hungarian nation”.

Using the two-thirds majority provided by the voters, he imposed his people, for long terms, in all key institutions, including the judiciary.

He then altered the electoral system to ensure his party a steady advantage in elections – elections that are still free but no longer fair, according to critics.

In 2014, he was the first prominent politician to explicitly promote an “illiberal state” as a model, in a speech held in Transylvania.

Observers explained that the regime in Budapest had practically seized the state.

“He built a captured state over the last 16 years. They channeled an extraordinary amount of resources and public funds to private foundations controlled by Fidesz henchmen,” said Daniel Hegedüs, deputy director of the Institute for European Policy, in an interview with the HotNews audience.

“The Enemy Without”

His attacks on the independence of the judiciary, media and institutions, as well as violations of individual liberties, including those of the LGBTQ+ community, have generated tensions with the European Union, which has frozen billions of euros in funds intended for Hungary.

He opposed the bloc's migration policy, refusing to take in asylum seekers in 2015, when he erected a fence several hundred kilometers long.

This strategy, based on the existence of an “enemy from the outside”, according to political scientist Zsuzsanna Szelenyi, who spoke to AFP, allowed him to win elections again in 2014, 2018 and 2022.

Harshly criticized for his anti-immigration policy at the time, he was in a way a trailblazer for other European politicians, who in turn gradually adopted a tougher anti-immigration policy amid voter dissatisfaction in most of the bloc's countries.

Freedom of the press suffered a lot. The government took full control of the public media, which became a mouthpiece for Fidesz, while businessmen close to the government bought as many independent media outlets as possible to eliminate criticism.

Attacks on the LGBTQ+ community also increased, culminating in the banning of the 2025 Budapest Pride march. This attack, however, failed. The restrictions only mobilized the world and the march took place, enjoying massive participation.

Over time, Soros turned into an enemy, a catalyst of all evil, so he was repeatedly attacked in the official discourse.

A negative and rampant campaign

Eager to be re-elected on April 12 for a fifth consecutive term, Orbán has designated a new enemy: Ukraine, which he accuses of wanting to draw Hungary into the war.

Voters, however, seemed more concerned with internal problems, with the economy and inflation, with degraded public services, which the opposition promises to improve. And here, the prime minister has a problem.

Decent economic growth, foreign investment and social incentives provided by Orbán have maintained a level of prosperity.

Over time, however, Hungary lagged behind its neighbors from the Visegrad group, Poland or the Czech Republic in particular, being overtaken by Romania – at least in some economic indicators.

After the pandemic, economic growth in Hungary was anemic or non-existent. During this time, there was huge inflation. Recently, the deficit and public debt have started to increase.

It didn't help that the allegations of corruption against the prime minister and his entourage, which reached the public despite the constraints imposed by the government.

An analysis by the Financial Times has shown how Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's associates have earned huge sums from public funds, including EU funds, and their business success has been particularly felt since the current prime minister began his long reign in 2010.

The solution? Amid economic problems, “the prime minister had to resort to this war hysteria as practically his only chance,” said Zsolt Enyedi, a professor of political science at the Central European University in Vienna, in an interview with the HotNews audience.

The polls did not seem to confirm the success of this speech, with Tisza continuing to gain an advantage.

In an interview with HotNews, Andrea Virág, director of strategy at the Republikon Institute, a think-tank in Budapest, observed that a big mistake of Fidesz was the lack of positive messages in the campaign.

“The main theme of their campaign and basically the only theme of their campaign is war. It's a matter of war or peace, the war in Ukraine, whether Hungary will be dragged into the war or not and so on. This is their only talking point,” said Virág.

Hungarian “mouse”.

During all these years spent at the head of the government, the 62-year-old leader turned the country into a laboratory of illiberal democracy and managed to make a name for himself on the international stage thanks to his frequent clashes with Brussels and his friendship with the presidents of the United States Donald Trump and Russian Vladimir Putin.

In an interview with the Hotnews audience, Daniel Hegedüs, deputy director of the Institute for European Policy, explained that the key to his appeal among the far right was that he “built a working model through which illiberal radical right forces can come to power, creating an uneven political playing field that gives them strategic advantages to retain power in the long term.”

“If we're talking about European far-right forces, I think it's fair to say that a potential electoral defeat will trigger some kind of strategic rethinking among both the European and potentially the transatlantic far-right,” he said.

It was Orbán's relationship with Putin that particularly drew the displeasure of fellow Europeans, especially after the launch of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Budapest has consistently tried to block or slow the European push against Russia, citing its desire for peace and its country's needs for cheaper natural gas from Russia.

The last days of the campaign did not end well from this point of view for the prime minister. Bloomberg revealed a phone call in which Orbán put himself completely at the service of Putin, offering to be the “mouse” helping the Russian “lion”.

What's next

With opinion polls giving Tisza an advantage, commentators have wondered whether Orbán would be willing to cede power in the event of a defeat.

In the discussion with HotNews, Daniel Hegedüs said that we can ask what is the strategic calculation in Orbán's mind: will he accept a democratic electoral defeat or will he decide that “his political survival must be linked to staying in power?”.

The expert also said that the scenario of fraudulent elections, which he considered, is not the most likely. But he emphasized at the same time that “there are arguments why Prime Minister Orbán could consider certain options to stay in power.”

But will Orbán lose? In the discussion held last week, Andrea Virág, director of strategy at the Republikon Institute, warned that Fidesz's resources and mobilization, as well as the electoral system, mean that the outcome of the April 12 election cannot be accurately predicted.

“There could be surprises,” she said.