Why Iran will emerge from the conflict wounded but stronger. “This war will be remembered as a serious strategic error by Trump”

The nearly six weeks of war in Iran have ended, at least for now, with US President Donald Trump claiming victory, but the US-Iran truce enshrines a harsh reality: a radical government in Tehran, well-entrenched, in control of the Strait of Hormuz and with strong leverage over global energy markets and its Gulf rivals, analysts quoted by Reuters news agency said.

Shockwaves have rippled throughout this period, contributing to global economic tensions and bringing the conflict to neighboring Gulf countries, whose economies depend on stability.

“This war will be remembered as a grave strategic error by Trump. One whose consequences reshaped the region in unintended ways,” Middle East expert Fawaz Gerges told Reuters.

Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz – a narrow passage through which about a fifth of the world's oil and gas passes – was officially treated as an international waterway. Iran monitored it, harassed the ships and sporadically intercepted them, but did not end up imposing full control.

In the new reality, Tehran has moved from chasing oil tankers to actually dictating terms. Tehran currently functions as the de facto guardian of this crucial sea route and selectively decides on passage and conditions. Iran even wants to charge ships a fee for their safe passage through the strait during the truce, the Financial Times revealed on Wednesday.

In addition, Iran has shown resilience in the face of sustained attacks and has retained its ability to escalate the conflict, exerting its influence on multiple fronts and at strategic choke points. Its sphere of influence extends through Lebanon and Iraq, via Hezbollah and Shia militias, and to the Bab el-Mandeb strait in the Red Sea, leveraging the sphere of influence of its allies in Yemen – the Houthi rebels.

Domestically, Iran's leadership has remained firmly in power – even as the country's economy is in shambles and large swaths of its infrastructure are destroyed by US and Israeli bombs.

“What did the US-Israel war actually accomplish?” Gerges asked. “Regime change in Tehran? No. Surrender to the Islamic Republic? No. Limiting Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium? No. Ending Tehran's support for its regional allies? No.”

Iran has absorbed the bombardment by preserving — and in some cases strengthening — its essential tools of power, four analysts and three Gulf government sources who spoke to the international news agency said.

In addition to Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz, the current political situation, they noted, is characterized by a more brutal and powerful establishment, the presence of unaccounted for nuclear material, continued production of missiles and drones, and continued support for regional militias.

Echoing Trump's narrative, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed on Wednesday that Washington had won a decisive military victory and that Iran's missile program had been virtually destroyed.

The United States, Israel and Iran agreed overnight to a two-week truce, and US and Iranian officials are expected to hold talks starting Friday in Pakistan to find a long-term solution.

While the truce may halt the fighting, Gulf officials have said its durability depends on resolving the deeper conflicts that shape the region's security and energy landscape.

Any deal that falls short of a comprehensive solution risks strengthening Iran's influence, rather than limiting it, they believe.

Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, chairman of the Emirates Policy Center, described the ceasefire as a fragile pause – one that could institutionalize new forms of instability if the ceasefire does not extend beyond a simple cessation of hostilities.

“This truce is not a solution; it is a test of intentions,” Ketbi told Reuters. “Unless it turns into a broader agreement that redefines the rules of engagement — in Hormuz and in all theaters of operations through intermediaries — it will be nothing more than a tactical pause before a more dangerous and complex escalation.”

“If Trump reaches a deal with Iran without addressing the core issues — ballistic missiles, drones, proxy groups, concerns about the nuclear program and the rules governing the Strait of Hormuz — then the conflict remains virtually unresolved and the region is exposed,” Ketbi said.

The Strait of Hormuz, a red line for the Gulf countries

Iran, for its part, has presented Washington with conditions that include the lifting of sanctions, recognition of uranium enrichment rights, compensation for war damage and continued control of the strait — conditions that underscore how far apart the two sides remain.

Trump acknowledged receiving the Iranian plan and called it “a viable basis for negotiations.”

For Gulf countries that rely on Hormuz to export their oil, the strait remains a non-negotiable red line, added Saudi analyst Ali Shihabi.

“Any outcome that effectively leaves the waterway in the hands of Iran would be a defeat for President Trump,” with potential repercussions from high energy prices extending into the U.S. midterm elections, he said.

What the war could still open for Tehran, Shihabi added, is the prospect of a negotiated settlement — which could include the lifting of sanctions.

From the perspective of the Gulf countries, the situation is deeply worrying. Distrust of Iran is at an all-time high following Tehran's attacks on energy facilities and commercial centers across the region. Even more worrying is that the war has turned the Strait of Hormuz into an explicit instrument of influence and coercion, analysts say.

The economic stake is just as serious. Iran wants to levy taxes on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz sea lanes as part of any permanent peace deal, a move that would have repercussions far beyond the Persian Gulf, affecting global energy markets and vital sources of income for states on the opposite shore.

“If Iran can collect millions of dollars from each ship, the implications are enormous — not just for the Persian Gulf, but for the world economy,” Ketbi said. “In this sense, the result is not just a regional failure, but a systemic change with global consequences.”

More broadly, analysts warned, this would signal a fundamental shift in the regional order – from a strait governed by international norms to one effectively overseen by a hostile state and emboldened, not weakened, by war.

What do the Gulf states want?

The truce, brokered by Pakistan, followed a war launched on February 28 by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said they aimed to limit Iran's regional power, dismantle its nuclear program and create conditions for the Iranians to overthrow their leaders.

Both sides proclaimed victory. Trump hailed the truce as a “total and complete victory”, saying US forces had achieved their objectives, while Iran's Supreme National Security Council claimed Trump had accepted its terms.

But the war has not yet succeeded in depriving Iran of its stockpile of enriched uranium close to that required for a nuclear weapon, nor its ability to launch attacks on its neighbors with missiles and drones. The country's leadership, which faced a popular uprising a few months ago, has withstood the American-Israeli onslaught without showing signs of collapsing.

A Gulf source said restoring trust with Tehran would require strict, written commitments – not informal assurances – covering non-interference, freedom of navigation and security of key maritime corridors, including the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the national security requirements of Gulf states.

These conditions, the Gulf source said, have been submitted to Pakistani mediators to be included as part of a comprehensive agreement.

An Israeli official said senior Trump administration officials had assured Israel they would insist on previous conditions, such as removing Iran's nuclear material, ending uranium enrichment and scrapping ballistic missiles.

Pakistan's prime minister announced that Iranian and American delegations are to meet in Islamabad on Friday for what would be the first formal peace talks since the war began.