Oil rises again, stock markets fall – Hormuz “under strict control”. Only 6 ships have passed through the Straits in the last 24 hours

The truce between the US and Iran has been presented as a breath of fresh air for the markets, but the reality contradicts it: oil is again approaching $100/barrel, stock markets are falling and the Strait of Hormuz remains under strict restrictions, reminding us that the crisis is not over, it is only changing shape.

International oil prices are rising again, after falling the previous day, as supply concerns return to the fore, the Greek press writes.

International benchmark Brent is trading around $98 a barrel, up more than 3 percent, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude follows close at $98.

The market is sending a clear message: as long as the energy flow in the Strait of Hormuz remains limited, upward pressures are unlikely to abate.

Hormuz: Open on paper

Despite the ceasefire agreement, the situation at the crucial sea passage is far from normal.

Tehran: Limits passage to about 12 ships per day and considers imposing a “fee” for passage.

In fact, after the new severe Israeli attacks on Lebanon, it seems that shipping has been suspended again.

An oil tanker and five bulk carriers have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, despite a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran.

The data comes from tracking data held and processed by Kpler, Lloyd's List Intelligence and Signal Ocean.

Europe and Asia in “red”

The reaction of the stock markets is immediate and negative. European stock markets went into the red. Frankfurt's Dax fell 1.6%, Paris's CAC 40 fell almost 1%, while losses for London, Madrid and Milan were more moderate. In Bucharest, the BET index is +0.3%.

Sellers from the old continent took over from Asian investors. Tokyo and Shanghai lost 0.7 percent, Seoul's Kospi fell 1.6 percent, while India's Sensex also fell 1.2 percent.

The market “votes” for caution

Tehran's accusations of US violations of the agreement, combined with continued Israeli operations in Lebanon, heighten mistrust. The crucial thing is not whether there is a truce, but whether it can be maintained. And for now, the markets are giving their own answer: de-escalation has not yet convinced.

Oil is rising, stocks are falling, and the Strait of Hormuz remains the most dangerous “node” in the global economy.