With the appearance of American aircraft carriers in the Caribbean and the escalation of Washington's rhetoric, the first airstrikes on military targets in Venezuela seem to be a matter of time – Henry Ziemer, an expert in the “America” program at CSIS, told PAP. Analysts talk about Trump's new doctrine: less Europe, more Latin America.
New Trump Doctrine?
According to the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), as part of the military campaign against the Venezuelan drug industry, there are currently 10,000 people off the Venezuelan coast. American soldiers. There are also four destroyers, two landing craft and a nuclear-powered submarine.
Also on standby are 10 F-35B fighters, eight Harrier multi-role aircraft, dozens of helicopters and the MV Ocean Trader ship serving as a base for special operations.
The unprecedented show of US power has been going on since September 2. That's when the United States launched its first kinetic attack on boats in the southern Caribbean that the Trump administration believes are smuggling drugs into the United States. Since then, 43 people have died and at least 10 such boats have been destroyed. The United States also attacked smugglers twice in the Pacific.
On Friday, October 24, the Pentagon unexpectedly announced the planned deployment of the supercarrier USS Gerald R. Ford and escort ships to the Caribbean region, which will arrive from the EUCOM (United States European Command) area, including, among others, Europe. There are 90 planes on the aircraft carrier, which can significantly increase the US firepower in the Caribbean Sea.
– With the appearance of an aircraft carrier strike group in the region, as well as the escalation of rhetoric from Washington, the first land raids are probably a matter of time, Henry Ziemer, an expert in the Americas program at CSIS, told PAP.
It is possible that the strike will come after President Trump returns from Asia, where he met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday. According to influential Republican senator Lindsey Graham, who appeared on the American CBS program “Face the Nation” on October 26, the president allegedly told him that after completing his trip to Asia, he would inform members of Congress about possible “future military operations.”
Graham in “Face the Nation” did not rule out “land strikes” in Venezuela.
“We have no intention of watching boats full of drugs sail to the US. We will disembark them and now we will move these activities to land,” the senator said.
According to American commentators, a new Trump doctrine is now being forged, involving restraint towards Europe and addressing US interests in Latin America.
According to the Times this is a response to the expectations of Trump's voters, who are tired of foreign wars – in Ukraine and the Middle East – and who, however, will not protest against the attack on Venezuela. Next to Mexico, Venezuela is for Americans a symbol of the drug industry that is destroying them and a source of problems with illegal immigration.
According to the British daily, “tens of thousands of Americans” will die of overdoses this year, regardless of origin and social class, “from Rust Belt cities depopulated by deindustrialization to the liberal suburbs of California.”
– So I think that the policy towards Venezuela is primarily a broad-based anti-drug campaign, as evidenced by the fact that recent US attacks on alleged smuggling boats also took place in the Pacific, far from Venezuela's territorial waters, Ziemer said.
However, the expert did not rule out the possibility of overthrowing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, because “President Trump's repeated declarations that attacks will move from sea to land may trigger unintended dynamics of escalation.”
“When the United States attacks military targets, it may be inadvertently drawn into regime change, even if that is not the goal of the Trump administration,” the expert added.
In 2020, during Trump's first presidency, the US Justice Department charged Nicolas Maduro and 14 high-ranking Venezuelan officials with “drug terrorism, corruption and drug trafficking” and running the “Cartel of the Suns.” This name refers to the insignia placed on the uniforms of Venezuelan officers.
The same accusation has now been repeated by President Trump, who claims that Maduro is the head of a drug-terrorist cartel that “floods” the US with deadly drugs.
According to the American justice system, the Maduro regime also allegedly cooperated with the “terrorist organization” FARC (the armed arm of the Colombian Communist Party) and robbed Venezuelan citizens of “billions of dollars.”
The tragedy of Venezuela
In Venezuela, ruled since 1999 by left-wing dictators, 70 percent citizens live in poverty. There is a shortage of food, medicine and electricity. And although Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves, the country even lacks fuel. Massive corruption and illegal seizure of land and businesses caused the collapse of the Venezuelan economy and forced 8 million people to flee, including to the USA.
As Ziemer recalled, the second Donald Trump administration tried the “carrot” tactic towards Caracas at the beginning of its rule. The policy towards Venezuela was then decided by the part of the government that supported an agreement with Maduro based on cooperation on oil and migration issues. This camp was led by Ric Grenell, Trump's special envoy who tried to negotiate a deal with Maduro.
In July this year The Trump administration even issued Chevron a license to resume oil production in Venezuela. According to The Times, the president was convinced by his colleagues who warned that if American companies did not get involved in Venezuela, China would take their place in the fuel sector.
– However, currently the other side has clearly won in US policy towards Venezuela, wanting to return to the strategy of maximum pressure on the Venezuelan regime and even overthrow Maduro, Ziemer said.
In his opinion, Trump was convinced that a good agreement with the Caracas regime was not possible, which would allow Maduro to remain in power and at the same time limit the flow of drugs to the United States.
American experts, however, remain skeptical about the possibility of overthrowing Maduro. Will Freeman from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) think tank, for example, believes that it will be enough for Trump to hit the drug industry and put an end to illegal migration from Venezuela. “He will be able to declare success even if Maduro remains in power,” Freeman said in an interview published on the CFR website, admitting that “of course” the US administration would prefer to get rid of Maduro. In his opinion, however, it will be difficult because the dictator has established a police state in Venezuela and has become “resistant” to coups.
As revealed by the Associated Press, this was discovered by, among others, an American federal agent who unsuccessfully tried to recruit the pilot of the presidential plane to hijack and land in a place where American services could catch Maduro and put him on trial. According to the American agency, the last, also unsuccessful recruitment attempt took place in October this year, when the US government doubled the reward for catching Maduro.
However, if the Americans manage to overthrow the Venezuelan regime, Ziemer believes it will have geopolitical repercussions.
– Maduro's fall would mean Moscow and Beijing losing a key ally in the Western Hemisphere. It would probably affect Russia the most, because China has established strong trade relations with several other governments in the region (including Nicaragua – PAP), Ziemer said.
The Middle Kingdom is becoming more and more active in Latin America. According to the Infobae website, the leftist dictator of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, donated over 5% to China. territory of their country for mining.
In turn, Russia, which this week ratified the Treaty on Strategic Partnership and Cooperation with Venezuela, is building its influence there by building weapons factories. Kalashnikovs are produced in Venezuela, where Russia does not have to worry about Western sanctions. An ammunition factory is also being built, which, according to TASS reports, can produce 70 million rounds a year.
“The end of Maduro would also put more pressure on authoritarian governments in the Americas, especially in Cuba and Nicaragua, which support each other, including internal, domestic repression,” Ziemer concluded. Anna Gwozdowska (PAP)
ag/bst/mhr/
