It is never good when, after a ceasefire agreement has been reached, there is great confusion among the public as to what was actually agreed. The regime in Tehran is presenting it as if its 10-point plan were the basis for negotiations starting Friday in Pakistan — and as if the U.S. government had committed to implementing it.
The items include: Iran's right to enrich uranium, the lifting of all sanctions, the lifting of all restrictive UN Security Council and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resolutions regarding Iran's nuclear program, compensation for war damage, maintaining Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, and the withdrawal of all US military forces from the region – i.e. a kind of ideal Iran wish list.
US President Donald Trump's government has recently demanded exactly the opposite. Now, however, Trump calls these 10 points an “adequate basis for negotiations.” If the Americans agreed to only some of these conditions during the upcoming negotiations in Islamabad, this would amount to a strategic victory for Iran. Therefore, one may wonder whether the alleged acceptance of 10 points as a basis for talks was just a way to avoid even greater escalation.
Pakistani negotiators say the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is also part of the ceasefire, which the Israelis deny. The US president also declared that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open again. However, the Iranian announcement on this subject contains some important reservations: “For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible provided it is coordinated with the Iranian armed forces and with due regard to technical constraints.”
We will only face these discrepancies in the coming days It remains to be seen what the interim agreement actually covers. Who will ultimately emerge from this situation as the strategic winner will only be clearly stated after the negotiations are completed. In any case, Trump has already indicated that he is ready to resume attacks at any time if the Iranians are not willing to compromise.
Even if the terms of a possible long-term solution are still completely unclear, however, it is possible to draw up a preliminary balance of this war.
1. The regime survived, at least in the short term
The greatest achievement of the mullahs' regime was simply that it survived despite the elimination of top figures such as Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard Corps. The regime change some expected as a result of the air war did not occur. However, this does not automatically mean that repressive governments will persist in the long term.
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Before the war, Iran was already close to economic ruin and suffered from constant water shortages. The devastation of war will likely worsen these problems. The long-term survival of the regime is therefore by no means assured.
2. Iran's deterrent power is weakening
Since the mullahs gave the green light to the Hamas terrorist organization to massacre Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023, Tehran's power in the region has been rapidly declining. The network of Iranian allies around Israel has collapsed. Hamas is now a shadow of its former self and has lost control over large areas of the Gaza Strip; the situation is similar in the case of the Hezbollah terrorist organization in Lebanon.
The regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, allied with Tehran, was overthrown and completely lost its importance. Waves of attacks by Israel and the US on Iran last summer and in recent weeks have broken the aura of inviolability of the mullahs.
Iran's navy was destroyed, as were much of its air defense system and many missile and drone production facilities and launch bases. Although Tehran was still able to fire missiles and drones at targets in the Persian Gulf and Israel, its offensive capabilities were greatly reduced, as was its industrial and military potential.
Hamas fightersBASHAR TALEB/AFP/East News / East News
In the current war, Tehran has tried to compensate for this loss of hard military resources with its own interpretation of the madman theory. The message was: We may not have the destructive potential we once had, but what we have, we are ready to use to destroy the region's energy infrastructure and key industries – no matter what the consequences may be for the global economy and important sectors in Iran.
For a long time, the mullahs were indifferent to what damage Israel and the US could do to Iran. This irresponsibility towards its own population, combined with its high risk appetite and the fateful closure of the Strait of Hormuz, allowed Tehran at least politically regain some of its own deterrence capacity.
3. Iran is increasingly isolated
By attacking even countries that do not host US bases, Iran completely destroyed its political relations with the Persian Gulf countries. Even countries friendly to the mullahs, such as Qatar, have been attacked, leaving Tehran now completely isolated in the region.
The mullahs did everything to create an anti-Iran coalition in the Middle East, including Israel. In the short term, Iran's attacks have increased Tehran's deterrence, but in the long term the regime has done itself enormous political damage.
5. USA, tactically brilliant, strategically questionable
Israel and the US have once again impressively demonstrated their military superiority in this war. Both countries however, they were unable to turn their tactical military successes into strategic victorieswhich was primarily the task of political leaders in Washington.
However, they were poorly prepared for Iranian counterattacks in the Persian Gulf and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Trump has never seemed to have a clear answer to this. Instead of developing a strategy, he seemed to change his war goals almost daily. The more helpless he was, the more severe were his threats against Iran and his attacks on allies in Europe as well as in the Persian Gulf.
The United States now looks like an incredible “rogue superpower,” said strategist Robert Kegan in an essay published in The Atlantic. The refusal of several European countries to allow the US to use US bases on their territory and airspace for war purposes shows that the transatlantic alliance under Trump is showing signs of collapse. This is troubling not only for America's allies, but also for Washington itself, which needs bases around the world to exert influence far beyond its own borders.
6. Israel as a pressure factor
From the point of view of Israeli military strategists, the United States agreed to a ceasefire too soon. Only on Tuesday, the Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Eyal Zamir, convinced his commanders that the operation was now entering a “decisive phase” “to accelerate the weakening of the regime.” Recently, Israel has mainly bombed economic and industrial infrastructure, including factories, to limit weapons production and the mullahs' sources of income.
Israel is skeptical about the prospects for a long-term agreement. From the very beginning, it pursued a strategy of attacking targets in Iran alongside the US for as long as possible. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has set himself the goal of destroying Iran's nuclear program. Opposition leader Yair Lapid accused the head of government on Wednesday of not achieving this goal. In his opinion, Israel “didn't even sit at the table” when the ceasefire was decided.
One of the most renowned security experts in Israel, former head of military intelligence Amos Yadlin, However, he sees opportunities for historic change in the Middle East. Together, the United States and Israel have “destroyed much” of Iran's destructive potential – now it is necessary to ensure that Tehran cannot rebuild its capabilities and the fight against its allies in the region continues, Yadlin emphasizes in Foreign Affairs.
As he argues, for this purpose, Jerusalem and Washington would have to initiate a regional initiative with the participation of Arab countries that were attacked by Iran to “prove that partnership with Israel and the United States is the safest option.”
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
