Politico: The world breathes a momentary sigh of relief after US-Iran truce, but risks lurk in the shadows
A world anxiously waiting amid doomsday rhetoric from US President Donald Trump breathed a sigh of relief on Tuesday after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week truce, although fears of further risks were not allayed.
“Better a TACO Tuesday than World War III,” one European official fired back, referring to Trump backing down on threats to wipe out Iran's civilization if it refuses to unblock the Strait of Hormuz. The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, expressed hope that the pause could eventually allow for a negotiated end to the conflict.
The announcement came in the middle of the night in Europe and the Middle East, and many US allies did not immediately react. However, the dramatic announcement of this break prompted some governments to immediately come out with statements of support.
Iraq's Foreign Ministry said it welcomed the ceasefire and “considers this development as a step that will help reduce tensions, create opportunities for de-escalation and strengthen security and stability in the region.”
Australia welcomed the agreement, saying it “wants the ceasefire to be respected and a resolution to the conflict reached.” It also pointed out that Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure had created turbulence in global markets and appealed “to all parties” to respect international law.
Pakistan, which has led efforts to broker a ceasefire, has been particularly optimistic that this could be the turning point in the war.
“Both sides have shown remarkable wisdom and lucidity and remained constructively engaged in promoting peace and stability,” Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif wrote on social media.
However, there are signs that the truce, just announced, is a fragile one. After the White House announced that Israel had agreed to the ceasefire, an Israeli military official told The Associated Press that attacks on Iran were continuing. Both Israel and the United Arab Emirates warned of rockets being fired in the early hours of Wednesday local time.
The truce was announced just before NATO chief Mark Rutte's scheduled visit to the White House on Wednesday. Devastating US strikes on Iran would have created a tense climate for the meeting and possibly a rift, with European allies refusing to back Trump's calls to support US strikes on Iran.
Domestic skepticism
Domestically, Trump's deal has unsettled anti-Iran hawks like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina), who has repeatedly called on social media for congressional review of the deal, adding that he is “extremely cautious about what is fact versus fiction or misrepresentation.”
The fact that Iran has agreed, as part of the truce, to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks is a sign that the US is losing ground, said Nate Swanson, a former official who negotiated with Iran on behalf of the Trump administration last year.
“If we go back two months and imagine that the big US gain is that the Strait of Hormuz is open, then it's an extremely ill-conceived venture, and Iran is in many ways stronger than before,” Swanson said. “It's a pretty harsh reality check, but we can understand why the president made this decision.”
Proclamations of victory
Still, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt called Tuesday's truce a “victory.”
“Our military's success created maximum leverage, allowing President Trump and his team to conduct tough negotiations that have now created an opening for a diplomatic solution and long-term peace,” Leavitt said. “In addition, President Trump succeeded in reopening the Strait of Hormuz.”
But Tehran presented a different narrative, seizing the moment to proclaim victory over the United States. Shortly after the truce was announced, Iranian state media described the gesture as a “retreat” by Trump, writing that the US president had “retired.”
After weeks of escalating attacks, culminating in Trump's threat to wipe out Iranian civilization earlier in the day, many US allies are now looking with hope to what Sharif called the “Islamabad Talks” scheduled for Friday in an attempt to end a war that has rocked the Middle East.
A statement by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in support of the truce suggests, however, that the negotiations in the coming days will be by no means easy.
While Sharif announced that the truce meant that the US and Iran, “together with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including in Lebanon”, Netanyahu indicated the opposite.
“The two-week ceasefire does not include Lebanon,” he said.
