Orlen increased wholesale fuel prices, and the minister lowered the maximum retail price. Stations have a problem on Good Friday
The maximum price for fuels is set by the minister for the next day and published in Monitor Polski. It was very unfavorable for gas stations that the decision was announced on Thursday, apparently without taking into account the reaction of the global fuel market to Donald Trump's speech to the nation.
Let us recall that the Minister of Energy, Miłosz Motyka, lowered the maximum prices for Good Friday of Pb 95 gasoline to PLN 6.19, P98 gasoline to PLN 6.80, and diesel oil to PLN 7.64. Meanwhile, on the night of our time, from Wednesday to Thursday, Donald Trump delivered a speech which showed that he had no intention of ending the war with Iran until the end that would satisfy the US authorities.
In response, oil prices rose dramatically and the dollar strengthened, among others. against the Polish zloty. Fuel price indices went up, but especially so diesel which the price of contracts quoted in London increased by as much as 11.4%. This meant that Orlen would raise wholesale prices the next day.
And so it happened. On Friday, Pb 95 petrol in Orlen's wholesale outlets costs PLN 5.45 per liter net, i.e. 2 groszy more than on Thursday, Pb 98 petrol costs PLN 6.02 per liter, i.e. 2 groszy more, and Ekodiesel PLN 6.99, i.e. by as much as 22 cents more than the day before.
Together with VAT 8%. this gives Orlen's wholesale:
- PLN 7.55 per liter of Ecodiesel
- PLN 6.50 per liter of Pb 98 gasoline
- PLN 5.89 per liter of Pb 95 gasoline
Now let's compare this with the maximum prices announced (including VAT) by Minister Motyka on Thursday for Friday, i.e. PLN 7.64, PLN 6.80 for Pb 98 and PLN 6.19 for Pb 95. It turns out that stations, buying wholesale on Friday and selling on the same day, would only earn on Good Friday 9 gr per liter of diesel fuel and over 30 groszy on both types of gasoline. If you add the costs of transport to the station to the wholesale price, it may turn out that some diesel stations will not make any money on Friday or will even lose money.
Increase in maximum prices on Holy Saturday
The situation will change on Saturday, because the minister has already taken into account changes in the market. The maximum price will therefore increase for the entire Easter weekend to:
- PLN 7.87 for a diesel
- PLN 6.82 for Pb 98 i
- PLN 6.21 for Pb 95
If Orlen's wholesale prices do not change on Saturday, stations will be able to earn approximately PLN 0.32 per liter of each type of fuel, i.e. they will earn that much without taking into account the costs of transporting fuel to the station.
This shows how problematic the mechanism of setting a maximum price is for the fuel retailer. In a dynamic market situation, this may cause stations to, for example, stop supplying diesel on a given day, waiting for the minister to improve the retail price list, or even suspend sales at an unfavorable price from their point of view.
This may affect both the availability of diesel oil and the profitability of retail fuel sales. The decline in profitability is an open road to closing stations. Hungary practiced this four years ago.
