Regime change in Cuba has long been on the list President Donald Trump's priorities. But with the political agenda dominated by Tehran, Havana is gaining a temporary respite — at least for now.
Given the amount of resources and attention Iran is consuming and the trouble a clash with Russia would cause, Trump and his advisers have decided it makes sense for now to give the Cuban regime a longer period to survive, according to a person familiar with the administration's discussions on Cuba.
But the White House still intends to change the Cuban political and economic system – adds the source.
And delaying any action against Cuba may actually work in Trump's favoraccording to a second person familiar with the deliberations of the American authorities.
The interlocutor also confirms that the White House has lowered Cuba's priority in the face of the war with Iran. This delay, he argues, could make any future actions more difficult to predict.
Either way, the administration appears determined to avoid turning a humanitarian disaster 90 miles (about 145 kilometers) from its coast into a full-blown disaster.
Amid an oil blockade that has severely weakened Cuba's economy and deepened a growing humanitarian crisis, Trump this week allowed a Russian tanker to reach the island. The president seemed to signal that he would be open to further similar actions.
A softening of the stance
Moscow is preparing to send another tanker to the island, Russian Energy Minister Sergei Cyvilov said. At the same time, it is not yet known whether the United States will allow the ship to dock.
The move is a sign of the Trump administration's recognition of “using humanitarian suffering as a tool for political change it can cause many other problems“, including mass migration, says Jeffrey DeLaurentis, former charge d'affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Cuba during the Obama administration.
DeLaurentis adds that it also reflects Trump's desire to do so not to irritate Russian President Vladimir Putin.
But that doesn't necessarily mean a coherent strategy, says Ricardo Zuniga, who served as principal deputy secretary of state for Latin America at the State Department under Biden.
Although Trump has allowed the Russian ship to pass through, he could change his mind and continue to obstruct shipments from Mexico, Zuniga said.
The decision to slightly ease the lockdown certainly does not mean that the administration has completely given up on seeking regime change on the island.
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“He will return to Cuba”
— We are in talks with Cuba, whose leaders want and should make an agreement, and President Trump thinks it “would be very easy,” says a White House official who, like others, was granted anonymity.
Cuban diplomats confirmed talks with the United States last month but made clear that any discussions about the island's political or economic system were off the table.
-He [Trump] will return to Cuba, says Frank Mora, who served as ambassador to the Organization of American States during the Biden administration. — He believes he can become a historical figure in Cuba, he adds. According to the expert, it is it's a matter of when, not if, the administration will take action on the island.
And, of course, there is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is not only the son of Cuban immigrants and a supporter of regime change on the island, but also faces growing pressure from a staunchly anti-regime base in his home state of Florida.
On Tuesday, Rubio told Fox News' Sean Hannity that both the economic and political systems in Cuba need to change, hinting that “we'll have more news on that very soon.”
However, as the eyes of the world are now on Iran, Cuba is receiving little attention for now. This will give her government time to an attempt to steer the conversations to your advantage — and potentially provide the island with some minor relief from the economic stranglehold.
“The Cuban side definitely wants to play for time,” says Zuniga. At the same time, as he adds, the situation of Cuban citizens is “worse than ever in history”.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
