XTB: the scenario of drastic increases in oil prices is becoming real

With the continuing blockade of Hormuz and the depletion of strategic reserves, the scenario of drastic increases in oil prices is becoming real, which for Polish drivers may mean that diesel oil will cost over PLN 10 per liter – says Michał Stajniak from XTB.

As noted by Michał Stajniak, deputy director of the XTB Analysis Department, President Donald Trump's speech on April 1, 2026 was intended to calm down global financial markets and outline a path out of the growing conflict with Iran. “However, it turned out to be completely different, because the speech not only did not answer the key questions, but also sowed even more uncertainty, resulting primarily in the return of the increase in oil prices, which shapes the mood on all financial markets and is of great importance for the entire global economy,” said the expert.

In his opinion, the American president's speech showed that The US “does not have any specific plan for the current conflict with Iran; there are no prospects for opening the Strait of Hormuz, which threatens global energy paralysis that the world and the financial market do not want to see.”. However, he pointed out that the key element of the US leader's speech was not hard declarations about ending the war, but what the president did not say, i.e. “the complete lack of a plan to physically unblock the Strait of Hormuz and silence on the possible use of land forces to secure key transit points.”

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In the absence of concrete solutions, volatility has reignited in the markets. Oil prices are rebounding by up to 8 percent and potentially prices may reach the highest levels since the conflict began – said an XTB analyst.

In Stajniak's opinion, investors noticed that The Trump administration is “operating in a strategic vacuum, assuming that the Strait of Hormuz will 'open on its own' when U.S. forces withdraw.”which experts consider extremely unrealistic and dangerous wishful thinking.” “Although the market still does not see the risk, we are potentially dealing with the largest energy crisis in history and in a moment all countries in the world will jump into war for raw materials,” argues the representative of XTB.

Even $200 per barrel of oil?

The expert said that although oil prices have already exceeded the psychological barrier of $100, the financial market still shows a “surprising lack of understanding of the scale of the upcoming crisis.” “Inside the Trump administration, officials are quietly preparing for an 'extreme scenario' in which the price of a barrel reaches $150 or even $200 a barrel.”. At such levels, the price of gasoline in the US will increase above $5 per gallon, which is absolutely unacceptable to the American consumer, a large part of whose expenses are the purchase of fuel,” Stajniak said.

He pointed out that although the forecasts were $150. barrel appear in the worst-case scenarios of some institutions, “the market seems to ignore such a risk, and it does not seem that the Strait of Hormuz will be unblocked in a few days.” He noted that the oil market is stabilized, among others. through alternative routes for oil and the release of part of strategic reserves.

Stajniak emphasized that although the final picture of the market is difficult to estimate due to the use of reserves and previously sanctioned oil, several realistic scenarios can be attempted.

He indicated that the first assumes that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasts until April and then is partially unblocked. “In such a scenario, oil consolidates at $100-120 per barrel, inflation in the US increases by approximately 1 percentage point, but there is no economic and market catastrophe. The market will quickly count on a return to normality, which is why indices and gold may start to rebound before the end of the first half of the year,” said the XTB analyst.

In the second scenario, the Strait of Hormuz would be immediately unblocked after signing the agreement, which – according to Stajniak – is “unrealistic, but possible.” “In this scenario, a large part of the oil contained in ships is released into the world and supply chains practically do not break down. Oil prices drop to $80 per barrel, indexes rebound strongly, the dollar is strongly sold off, and interest rates will not be raised due to the temporary nature of inflation,” he explained.

It is also possible – in Stajniak's opinion – a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for the entire second quarter, and then crude oil will rebound to $150-180 per barrel, and declines in stock indices would exceed 20%. from the last local peaks. “There is a risk of recession in Europe and a significant slowdown in other regions of the world. This may be an opportunity to buy on the stock exchange, as the world must unblock the Strait of Hormuz,” the analyst said.

In the last scenario, the XTB representative assumes further escalation, no talks with Iran and the closure of Hormuz extending for the holidays. “In such a scenario, at times of increased demand for fuel, the price of oil may rise to worst-case scenario levels of $200 per barrel. Adjusting prices for inflation, oil prices peaked in 2008 at over $200 per barrel. At such oil levels, we have a breakdown in supply chains, a food crisis due to expensive fertilizers, and inflation is becoming as big a problem as it was in the 1970s in the United States United States,” says the XTB analyst. (PAP)

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