800 plus. This is how much the service is worth today
The Family 500 plus program was the reason why PiS won the elections in the fall of 2015. It has been 10 years since the introduction of this revolutionary benefit.
We decided to check whether it is worth the same today as in April 2016. And if not, what is its real purchasing power compared to the reality from a decade ago.
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In 2016, PLN 500 was not that little. With the minimum wage at PLN 1,000. The benefit of PLN 850 was 27%. the lowest remuneration for work.
Compared to the national average, which was 4,000 a decade ago. PLN 47, the benefit was 12.4%.
If we kept these values to this day, then… the benefit would have to amount to PLN 1.3 thousand, respectively. PLN (if we compared it to the minimum wage) or over PLN 1.1 thousand. PLN (if the average was to be the reference point).
Already at this stage it is clear that today's benefits have nothing to do with what they had a decade ago. Another thing is that when the program was introduced, it was only available for the second and subsequent children.
Parents of only children had to meet the income criteria to receive the money. It amounted to PLN 800 per family member or PLN 1,000. PLN 200 in the case of a child with a disability.
This is how much 500 plus is worth today. No, it's not PLN 800
Over the decade, the program underwent two fundamental reforms. The first one took place in 2019. In July, the regulations were liberalized and the money was now available to all children, regardless of family size and income.
In turn, in 2024, the benefit was indexed and increased to PLN 800. This happened after a loud discussion about the fact that after months of increased inflation, the real value of 500 plus had already dropped to around PLN 350.
We checked how much the benefit would actually be worth if not for the 2024 increase and what its current value is according to the purchasing power of 2016.
The chart above clearly shows how 500 plus was losing value. Especially in 2022-2023, when high inflation was rampant in our country. If it weren't for the increase, today 500 plus would actually be worth just over PLN 310.
After the indexation of the benefit, its purchasing power in the conditions of 2016 also increased automatically. Thanks to this The program is at its starting point today, because its real value, according to our estimates (they do not take into account the preliminary inflation reading for March), is PLN 501.
Fertility? What fertility rate?
When creating the Act on State Aid in Raising Children, the authors of the program assumed that it would contribute to an increase in the number of births and, consequently, also increase the TFR, i.e. total fertility rate. This is an indicator that, to put it simply, tells us how many children there are for one woman throughout her reproductive age.
And initially it even succeeded. The chart below shows a slight rebound at the end of the second decade of the 21st century.
Number of births in Poland over the years.
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Central Statistical Office
Immediately after the introduction of the 500 plus program, the number of births per year increased slightly. First, to the level of 375 thousand. children per year, to even break the barrier of 400,000 in 2017. From that moment on, however, a rapid descent began.
According to preliminary estimates of the Central Statistical Office, o which we wrote in Business Insider Polskaapproximately 238,000 children were born in Poland in 2025. kids. That's an average of less than 20,000. per month, which is the worst result since World War II. The TFR indicator is scraping the bottom and instead of increasing, it has dropped to just under 1.1.
How does this relate to the 500 plus assumptions? In the draft act that introduced the program, we found a table with fertility forecasts for the next decade. We paste it below.
These were supposed to be the effects of introducing 500 plus.
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Sejm
They assumed several variants. The most pessimistic, i.e. low, medium and high. The last, i.e. the highest, was supposed to be the effect of introducing 500 plus. After less than ten years, it is clear how much the forecasts differed from reality.
Beata Szydło's government assumed that thanks to 500 plus, 357,000 people would be born in Poland in 2024. 329 children. It is 120 thousand, i.e. over a third less. Nay. Today we can only dream of something that in 2015 was considered the worst-case scenario, i.e. the low variant. This assumed PLN 294,000. births.
500 plus (and the later 800 plus) turned out to be a failure when it comes to increasing the fertility rate. However, we must not forget that it fulfilled a completely different function and significantly reduced poverty among children. We wrote about it in Business Insider Polska many times.
