Poland with its own nuclear bomb? Expert: Technology is not a barrier, the problem is the USA

Poland has the potential to construct nuclear weapons on its own, said Strategy & Future expert Albert Świdziński in the PAP Studio. In his opinion, the main obstacles are of a political nature, and the most important factor blocking the possible nuclearization of Poland would be the attitude of the United States.

Albert Świdziński is responsible for the analytical department at the Strategy & Future think tank and is the author of the book “Our bomb. Does Poland need a nuclear strategy?” Previously, he was the coordinator of the War Games and Simulation Program at the Casimir Pułaski Foundation. When asked in the PAP Studio whether Poland could acquire nuclear weapons, he replied in the affirmative. Moreover – as he said – our country, at least theoretically, would be able to construct it on its own. However, the biggest obstacle would not be the technology itself, but “the political environment and international reality.”

– This is a gigantic industrial project. It requires the creation of dozens of branches of industry before we even get to building nuclear weapons, so it's not easy. However, countries such as North Korea, Pakistan and India were able to create their own nuclear weapons decades ago, mainly at their own expense, he said.

As he emphasized, in the case of developing a nuclear charge for a thermonuclear weapon, we are talking about technology dating back to the 1960s, so technological knowledge itself is not the main barrier today. Also, developing the means of transporting it, command and control systems, and creating an entire industry from scratch – although it would be a very expensive undertaking – does not exceed the capabilities of a medium-sized country such as Poland.

He referred to the “nth country experiment” conducted by the American center Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in 1964, under which three young physics PhD students who did not specialize in nuclear weapons were commissioned to create a diagram of how nuclear weapons work. As he noted, within three years, based only on publicly available sources, they developed a nuclear bomb operation scheme based on implosion. “So this does not exceed the capabilities of a determined middle state today,” he added.

However, in Świdziński's opinion, the key limitations are of a political nature, and he noted that if the process itself were successful, it would be very risky, expensive and fraught with a number of problems.

In his opinion, the creation of nuclear weapons by Poland is, for obvious reasons, not in the interest of Russia, but also of our allies within NATO. Our country is also a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which formally does not prohibit uranium enrichment, but – as he notes – in practice, countries outside the “nuclear club” have very limited opportunities to develop a full fuel cycle. The exception is Japan.

In the expert's opinion, the most important factor blocking the possible nuclearization of Poland would be the attitude of the United States, with which we have a “patron-client” relationship. Washington has historically counteracted such ambitions among its allies, fearing both the loss of political influence and the risk of the so-called being drawn into conflicts by more assertive nuclear weapons states.

– The “client” does not have the full ability to manage escalation, that is, we cannot say to ourselves that “we now want to attack Moscow to inflict pain”, because the Americans want to control this escalation to avoid, for example, being drawn into a war in a way they do not control. This is the same reason why the Americans will not only not be willing, because they are never willing, but they would actively fight our attempts at nuclearization as long as we are in a formal alliance with them, he emphasized.

Therefore, in the current situation – according to Świdziński – Poland, being an ally with the USA, would not be able to launch a full-scale nuclear program. As he pointed out, having allies have their own nuclear weapons reduces the importance of American security guarantees, which is contrary to Washington's interests. In his opinion, Poland should now implement a nuclear hedging strategy.

– Hedging is, in a verbal sense, a declaration that we do not want to have nuclear weapons now, but if something happens or does not happen, we can reconsider our position – he added.

In a practical sense – in his opinion, Poland should develop the so-called dual-purpose – technological and military capabilities, e.g. long-range missiles or satellite reconnaissance, which could be used in a nuclear program in the future. Moreover, Poland could show interest in the so-called fuel cycle, i.e. a technology used in the energy industry, which is also necessary in the production of nuclear weapons.

– Of course, Americans will know what Poland is doing. They won't be able to tell us that we have an active nuclear program, because we don't, but they will know that all this, these puzzles scattered across the map, put together, constitute a nuclear program, he said.

As the expert emphasizes, this will be a clear signal for Americans that their security guarantees are insufficient for us and that we are starting to think about alternatives. Therefore – according to Świdziński – the USA will have two options. The first: attempts to persuade us to abandon our ambitions and – despite dissatisfaction with this fact – provide us with greater security, e.g. by participating in NATO's Nuclear Sharing or the permanent presence of American soldiers on the Suwałki Isthmus. The second option is the lack of greater American security guarantees, which would give Poland a real reference point and check in practice whether “readiness to come to our aid is limited.”

– If they (the US) are not ready to accept these certain risks, then we have option B, which is to say that their guarantees are insufficient. And we are shortening the path to the goal of securing our own security at our own expense through our own nuclear weapons, he said.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk at the beginning of March this year said that “Poland is conducting talks with France and a group of its closest European allies regarding an advanced nuclear deterrence program.” Earlier, in mid-February this year, President Karol Nawrocki declared that he was a “great supporter” of Poland joining the nuclear project and admitted that “Poland should consider developing its own nuclear weapons.”

Nuclear sharing is a NATO mechanism, the key pillar of which is the United States. As part of it, American nuclear warheads are deployed in several European countries, including Germany. French President Emmanuel Macron already talked about a nuclear umbrella in 2025, starting a debate on the protection of Paris's partners in Europe through French nuclear deterrence.

Adrian Kowarzyk (PAP)

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