ISW refers to the words of the speaker of the Defense Forces of southern Ukraine, Vladslav Voloshin, that Russia intends to throw into battle all those mobilized from Crimea. These personnel will replace the wounded and replenish the 810th separate marine brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Its units are now operating in the Kursk direction and in the Crimea operational-tactical group. The Russian command intends to deploy this brigade into a marine division, the report says.
It is noted that Ukrainian counterattacks in the south are forcing Russia to transfer additional forces. In particular, elements of the 55th and 120th Marine Divisions are being transferred to the areas of Oleksandrovka and north of Gulyai-Polye, where they could enter combat as early as April.
In addition, the 58th combined arms army of the Russian Federation, which operates in the west of the Zaporozhye region and in the Kherson direction, will have to replenish the 19th and 42nd motorized rifle divisions from reserves.
According to the Ukrainian side, such transfers complicate Russia’s preparations for the spring-summer offensive of 2026, since the command has to choose between containing Ukrainian counterattacks in the south and offensive actions on other sectors of the front.
Context
On March 17, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced that the Ukrainian defense forces eliminated the largest number of Russian occupiers in one day this year – 1,710 military personnel killed and wounded. According to the department, the Russians tried to take advantage of the fog and launched offensives on several sectors of the front, but were defeated.
On March 20, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that the Russian occupiers had increased pressure on several sectors of the front at once.
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in a March 21 report that Russian troops have likely entered the active phase of the projected spring-summer offensive of 2026.
On March 22, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky spoke about the attempts of the Russian army advance from the border in the Kharkov and Sumy regions.
