Poland among the countries most exposed to the effects of the Hormuz crisis

Poland is one of the countries most at risk from the effects of closing the Strait of Hormuz, warn Allianz Trade analysts. They indicate that if it is blocked for longer than three months, it may increase inflation, weaken the zloty and increase the risk of recession, as well as debt costs.

Experts assessed that one of the main threats related to the conflict in the Middle East is the risk of recession. Poland may be among the countries most susceptible to economic slowdown. This is due to the “triple deficit”, consisting of a budget deficit, a current account deficit and a structurally negative energy balance.

A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasting longer than three months would transform what began as a price shock into a structural disruption, analysts said. Each additional week of closure increases recessionary pressures as reserves are depleted and supply shortages worsen.

Apart from Poland, analysts included among the countries most at risk of recession as a result of the prolonged conflict: Bangladesh, Egypt, Ethiopia, Jordan, Kenya, Morocco, Pakistan, Romania, Sri Lanka and Tunisia.

“Meanwhile, another group of economies are at a moderate risk of recession as they have more room to maneuver to support their economies – Chile, China, Hungary, India, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey. Meanwhile, large commodity exporters such as Brazil and Mexico appear structurally resilient despite budget deficits, as energy exports cushion the impact of higher prices,” it added.

Analysts pointed out that the crisis also translates into increased inflationary pressure. After the escalation of tensions, market inflation expectations in Poland increased rapidly – the break-even point increased by 34 basis points in a short period of time.

According to Allianz Trade estimates, inflation in emerging markets, including Poland, may increase by an additional 0.8-1.0 percentage points, mainly as a result of rising energy prices and imported inflation. The latter means an increase in prices of goods and services in the country caused by higher prices of products, raw materials, e.g. oil, gas or semi-finished products imported from abroad.

Experts also drew attention to the negative reaction also visible on the currency market. The zloty weakened against the dollar by 4.9%. in the period from February 27 to March 13, 2026, which analysts explain both by Poland's high dependence on energy imports and the outflow of capital towards safer assets.

Debt financing costs also increased. Yields on Polish 10-year treasury bonds increased by 83 basis points, reflecting the increase in risk premiums and worsening investor sentiment towards the Central and Eastern European region.

Emerging markets in Europe are generally seen as relatively resistant to Middle East shocks, and Poland has strategic oil reserves of approximately 121 days of consumption, which may partially cushion short-term supply disruptions.

Analysts also pointed to growing pressure on public finances. The deficit of the public finance sector in Poland is approximately 6.3%. GDP, and possible protective measures, such as energy subsidies, may further worsen the fiscal situation.

In the opinion of Allianz Trade, the prolonged crisis in the Strait of Hormuz increases the risk of a stagflation scenario in Poland, combining slowdown in economic growth with persistently high inflation. (PAP)

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