The credit paradox in 2026: why we're paying more for the house even though interest rates have fallen
Falling mortgage rates have partially offset higher home prices, with the rate/wage ratio rising despite average mortgage rates today being lower than they were a year ago.
Lower mortgage rates partially offset higher home prices. Archive photo
Mortgage rates have increased significantly relative to the average net salary over the past year, starting 2026 with a rising rate/salary ratio according to the Ipotecare.ro index, despite the fact that current average mortgage interest rates are lower compared to those recorded a year ago.
Thus, the average rate of a mortgage loan contracted for a duration of 25 years for the purchase of a two-room apartment (50 useful square meters) in Bucharest reached at the beginning of this year a weight of 54% of the average salary at the national level, compared to a level of 44% recorded at the beginning of 2025.
The depreciation of the rate/salary ratio recorded during the past year was determined exclusively by the increase in house prices. In calculating the index valid for January of this year, an average price of 112,500 euros for a two-room apartment, or 2,250 euros per square meter, was taken into account, increasing by 25% compared to the beginning of the previous year.
On the other hand, the average mortgage interest rates recorded in the local market are lower today compared to those at the beginning of the previous year: the average mortgage interest rate recorded during the first quarter of this year was 5.55%, down from 5.75% a year ago.
“The fall in mortgage rates partially offset the increase in house prices and the coming months will bring another slight reduction in interest rates, mainly as a result of increased competition in the banking sector. The Romanian banking system has shown resilience and mortgage interest rates have continued to fall over the past three years, despite all the global turbulence and inflationary pressures“, said Laurențiu Bogdan, expert in mortgage loans.
The rate/salary ratio could drop slightly in the summer
Calculations show that the average mortgage interest expected for the middle of this year will be 5.44%, which will cause the rate/pay ratio to drop slightly to 52%. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that average incomes in Bucharest are about 40% higher compared to the national average, which means that the average rate required to buy a two-room apartment in the capital holds a weight of only 40% of the average income recorded at the regional level.
The last time the rate/salary ratio recorded a value similar to the current one was at the beginning of 2020, just before the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. The average value of a new two-room apartment located in Bucharest was then 69,500 euros, while the average mortgage interest was at a level of 5.22% and the average national salary was 668 euros – compared to 1,128 euros in January of this year.
The affordability of contracting a mortgage today is more than four times better compared to the beginning of 2008, when the average rate of a loan needed to buy a two-room house in Bucharest was about 2.3 times higher compared to the average net salary at the national level.
In 2025, mortgage loans amounting to 10.9 billion euros were granted throughout the country according to the data of the National Bank of Romania, an increase of 18.4% compared to the result recorded in 2024, thus establishing a new record for the relevant sector. However, this volume also includes all forms of refinancing, credit restructuring, conversions and transfers.
How high are the apartment prices
In search of low prices, Romanians are turning, in 2026, towards old homes or houses located on the outskirts of big cities, according to an analysis based on the results of a survey on the purchase intention of Romanians, but also on the selection criteria. According to her, price comes first in choosing a property, but location remains important to most buyers.
As for prices, the analysis shows that the average asking price for apartments put up for sale in Romania is approaching the threshold of 2,000 euros/useful square meter, according to the Imobiliare.ro Index – a tool that has been monitoring the evolution of the residential market in the main urban centers for over 15 years through the most extensive database in the country.
• Cluj-Napoca: 3,272 euros/useful square meter
• Brașov: 2,265 euros/useful square meter
• Bucharest: 2,236 euros/useful square meter
• Craiova: 2,150 euros/useful square meter
• Constanța: 1,975 euros/useful square meter
• Sibiu: 1,968 euros/useful square meter
• Iași: 1,946 euros/useful square meter
• Timișoara: 1,909 euros/useful square meter
• Oradea: 1,809 euros/useful square meter
• Ploiesti: 1,355 euros/useful square meter
