In the first month of the year, Romania spent abroad almost one billion euros more than it earned, according to the data transmitted by the BNR on Tuesday
For a single month, the figure is high. But it is not the deficit itself that is the most interesting part of the BNR communique. The real story lies in a category of data that almost no one notices: primary income.
The invisible change in the balance of payments
In January 2025, Romania had a surplus of 505 million euros in primary income.
A year later, the indicator became negative: -25 million euros. This change tells an important story.
Primary income includes: company dividends, interest paid on debt, investment income.
In other words, they reflect money flowing out of the economy to investors.
The paradox of the Romanian economy
Romania has attracted massive foreign investments in the last two decades. These investments built factories, IT centers, logistics chains and transformed the economy into an important industrial hub of Eastern Europe.
But investments also have an inevitable effect: as companies become profitable, part of the profit generated in Romania goes back to investors from abroad – it is basically the normal mechanism of economic globalization.
The deficit that comes from trade
In parallel, the economy continues to import more than it exports.
In January, Romania's trade deficit exceeded 2.3 billion euros, the main source of the external imbalance.
In short, the Romanian economy remains one in which consumption is based on imports, in which domestic production does not always keep up, and this difference is directly reflected in the balance of payments.
Services, discreet saving of external balance
But there is also a strong point: the service sector — especially transport and IT — continues to bring billions of euros into the economy and partially offset the trade deficit.
Without this surplus in services, Romania's external imbalance would be much higher.
The externally financed economy
In parallel, Romania continues to attract foreign capital.
Direct investments were 429 million euros in January, slightly above last year's level.
But these flows must be seen in the wider context of financing the economy. At the same time, Romania's external debt reached 229 billion euros, increasing compared to the end of last year.
In other words, the Romanian economy operates in a delicate balance: it imports capital, attracts investments, generates profit and part of this profit goes back to investors.
Romania's economic model
This structure is not unusual for an emerging economy.
Poland, the Czech Republic or Hungary went through a similar process during the years of European integration.
But there is one important condition: the economy must grow fast enough to support this model.
When growth slows, the same external imbalances can become much more difficult to finance.
External liquidity indicators remain comfortable, and the NBR's foreign exchange reserves continue to cover short-term external debt.
But the statistics clearly show something deeper: Romania's economy is still heavily dependent on foreign capital.
And in a world with high interest rates and geopolitical tensions, this dependence becomes one of the most important questions for the future of the Romanian economy.
