Time is on Iran's side. Expert: They may intensify cyberattacks

Ashley Davis14/03/2026

0 52 3 minutes read

Blick: Donald Trump declared that he would “completely destroy the regime.” Is it real?

Jean-Marc Rickli: Since the revolution and the regime's takeover in 1979, Iran has been under sanctions. This meant it couldn't buy modern weapons or fighter jets – at least not in the West – which weakened its military potential.

The fighters currently in service with Iran, such as the F-14, known from the first “Top Gun” movie, are outdated. They come from a time when Iran was still a US ally. Despite this, the regime has shown that it is resilient and still has sufficient resources to escalate conflicts and defend itself.

Iran has specialized in strategic niches. An example is the network of regional groups proxythe so-called axis of resistance, which includes, among others, Hamas, Hezbollah, Shiite militias in Iraq and the Houthis. This also includes programs to develop missile and drone technology and uranium enrichment.

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Since Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023, many of these groups proxy have been weakened but have not disappeared. The Houthis in particular have shown that they can still influence the situation, for example by attacking shipping in the Red Sea. Hezbollah has also carried out several attacks on Israel in recent days, prompting the country to open a new front in Lebanon.

What is the situation with missiles and drones?

It is difficult to clearly assess this. Various sources estimate that at the beginning of the war, Iran had approximately 2,000 medium- and long-range missiles capable of reaching Israel and approximately 4,000-8,000 short-range missiles that could hit the Persian Gulf countries. Israel and the US also bombed missile launchers, which likely resulted in a decline in the number of rocket attacks.

However, the threat from drone technology remains significant. Compared to missiles, drones are much easier to hide and launch. This means that Iran still has the ability to attack its neighboring Gulf countries in particular. An escalation in the form of mining the Strait of Hormuz could have long-term consequences – removing them would take a very long time.

What about economic pressures?

Attacks on Iran's oil and gas infrastructure could put economic pressure on the regime, but could also hit the population hard. The same applies to attacks on seawater desalination plants. Disruptions to water and energy supplies can be expected, which could lead to serious damage in the long term and threaten the stability of the new government if the US and Israel overthrow the current regime.

“Time is on Iran's side”

The regime threatens to launch attacks on “new fronts.” What fronts are we talking about?

On Thursday, Italian and French troops in Iraq were attacked by Shiite militias. Iran may expand its target list to include new countries and additional civilian or strategic facilities, such as water desalination plants – one has already been hit in Bahrain. Mining the Strait of Hormuz or blocking the Strait of Bab al-Mandab by the Houthis would also be an escalation. In addition, the Iranians may intensify cyber attacks and activate the so-called sleeper cells to carry out terrorist attacks in the region and beyond.

How long can this conflict last?

This is impossible to predict, but the longer it continues, the more Iran will be perceived as the winner and the greater the pressure will be on the US to end the war. It could be said that time is currently on Iran's side. Although Iran no longer has the capacity to launch massive attacks on Israel, its potential is still sufficient to destabilize the region in the long term. Preventing this without the use of ground troops currently seems impossible.

However, I do not think that the US would risk such a step, because it would mean a serious escalation and a threat to the lives of American soldiers. If the situation continues without strategic successes, the Trump administration will come under increasing pressure.

“The Accumulation of Crises”

Can the conflict spread to the entire region?

In my opinion, the situation has already deteriorated, at least economically. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has global consequences. However, we are not witnessing a world war. The impact is not limited to oil and gas markets, but also extends to agriculture – around one third of the world's maritime fertilizer trade passes through the strait, and a blockage of transit could lead to famines. Further escalation, for example by mining sea routes, could paralyze supply chains for weeks. The Iranians also have coastal batteries that can strike ships in the strait.

Fuel supplies through the Strait of HormuzPAP

How do you, as an expert, assess the global development of the situation?

The global security situation is becoming increasingly complex. However, what distinguishes it from the past is the accumulation of crises. Since the beginning of the year, we have been observing the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, the war in Sudan and tensions in regions such as Venezuela and Greenland.

In addition, there are growing connections between these conflict areas. While Russia is most likely supplying drones to Iran, Ukraine is selling cheap anti-drone systems to Gulf states. The fact that key players are increasingly completely disregarding UN rules and flagrantly violating international law poses a huge challenge to the future world order.

Ashley Davis14/03/2026

0 52 3 minutes read