Iran has signaled that it is preparing for a potential long-term conflict with the United States, signaling a tougher strategic stance that could reshape both regional security dynamics and global energy markets. In an interview with CNN, senior foreign policy adviser Kamal Kharazi suggested that Tehran no longer sees a path to diplomacy and that the war may end with economic and geopolitical pressure on the US that Iran will take advantage of to force Donald Trump's hand.
Kharazi, a senior adviser to the Supreme Leader's office, said that negotiations with Washington are, at this point, practically out of the question. According to him, previous diplomatic engagements failed because the United States allegedly launched military strikes while talks were still ongoing.
“I don't see any room for diplomacy anymore. Because Donald Trump has deceived others and broken his promises, and we experienced this in two rounds of negotiations — while we were engaged in negotiations, they hit us,” Kharazi told CNN on Monday.
This statement reflects a larger narrative among the Iranian leadership that diplomacy with Washington is no longer reliable. By portraying negotiations as futile, Tehran is signaling that strategic resistance and pressure tactics, rather than dialogue, will define the next phase of the conflict.
Thus, Kharazi emphasized that the war could end only in the context in which the economic consequences will force other countries to intervene diplomatically. His statements indicate a calculated attempt by Iran to internationalize the costs of the conflict, hoping that rising inflation, energy shortages and economic instability will prompt regional and global powers to pressure the United States and Israel to end the war.
“This war has put considerable pressure – economic pressure – on others, in terms of inflation, energy shortages, and if it continues, that pressure will continue to increase, and others will have no choice but to intervene,” he said.
Broadening the economic impact of conflict
Iran's strategy appears to be focused on striking US interests in the Middle East, particularly in the Gulf states that host US military bases. But civilian infrastructure such as airports and residential buildings in several countries in the region were also targeted.
The objective appears to be to increase economic costs for neighboring countries, particularly by exploiting the vulnerability of transit routes for global energy trade. Thus, Iran's threats led to the disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important transit points for oil in the world. About a fifth of global oil supplies normally go through this route, and any disruption is immediately reflected in international markets.
As a result, the price of oil exceeded $100 a barrel on Monday, causing volatility in global financial markets and amplifying inflation fears. Energy analysts note that the current conflict has disrupted about 20% of the world's oil supply, double the record level recorded during the Suez Crisis of 1956–1957, considered one of the worst energy crises in history.
Equally worrying for markets is that the conflict appears to have almost completely eliminated spare oil production capacity – that extra production that major producing nations can quickly activate to stabilize markets in times of crisis.
Military posture and regional operations
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) recently revealed that approximately 60 percent of its military power is currently being used to attack US bases and US strategic interests in the region.
Adding a new level of uncertainty, Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was elected to the highest office in the state. This development suggests continuation of the hardline, not moderation, Mojtaba Khamenei is perceived by analysts as close to the hardline factions of the regime and the Revolutionary Guards. Kharazi emphasized that the country's political leadership and military remain united under the new authority.
US President Donald Trump has criticized Mojtaba Khamenei's rise to power, saying it is “unacceptable”. Tehran quickly dismissed the comment, with Kharazi commenting that decisions about Iran's leadership are none of Washington's business.
Global implications
The conflict is rapidly evolving into a complex geopolitical crisis with implications far beyond the Middle East. If Iran's strategy to increase economic pressure on global markets is successful, international pressure for de-escalation could increase. Conversely, if the military escalation continues, the conflict risks turning into a wider regional war.
The war continues
Tehran on Tuesday threatened not to export a single liter of oil from the Gulf as long as the United States and Israel continue bombing, while the United Arab Emirates shut down its largest oil refinery after a drone attack, AFP reports.
Oil prices fell slightly on Monday after US President Donald Trump suggested the war would end soon.
But on Tuesday, prices started to rise again amid fresh threats and airstrikes after a week of attacks on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and the Gulf region.
One of the region's most important oil refineries, located in Ruwais in the United Arab Emirates, was shut down as a precaution on Tuesday after a drone strike on the industrial complex that houses it caused a fire, a source familiar with the situation told AFP.
“The Strait of Hormuz will either be a strait of peace and prosperity for all, or a strait of defeat and suffering for the belligerents,” commented Iran's security chief, Ali Larijani.
The rise in oil prices also followed strikes on oil depots in Iran and attacks on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and around the Gulf, which continued on Tuesday, with explosions heard in Doha.
Qatar, where the suspension of LNG exports has sent energy prices in Europe soaring, said Iranian attacks on civilian infrastructure were continuing.
Meanwhile, the Israeli military announced a new wave of attacks on Tehran, while the US stepped up its air and missile bombardment.
“Today will be, once again, the day of the heaviest strikes inside Iran,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a news conference at the Pentagon.
The exchange of blows will heighten fears of economic instability, with traders and energy policymakers nervously watching events in the Gulf, the source of about a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies.
“Catastrophic consequences for world oil markets would occur the longer the disruption continues, and the consequences for the global economy will be even more severe,” the chairman and CEO of Saudi oil giant Aramco, Amin H. Nasser, told reporters.
“It is absolutely critical that maritime traffic resumes in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Egypt raised fuel prices by up to 30% and Pakistan announced it would provide naval escorts for merchant ships. France sent warships to the region.
The Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) mocked Trump's attempt to play down the economic impact of the war, warning: “Iranian armed forces … will not allow the export of a single liter of oil from the region to the hostile side and its partners, until further notice.”
“We will determine the end of the war,” the IRGC, seen as close to Iran's new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, said in a statement carried by Iranian media.
Larijani issued a veiled threat to Trump, warning him to watch out “so he doesn't get eliminated.”
“Iran is not afraid of your empty threats. Even those stronger than you could not eliminate the Iranian nation,” Larijani wrote in a social media post.
Iran's warnings came in response to Trump, who held a press conference in a Florida hall, declaring of the war: “It will end soon, and if they start again, they will be hit even harder.”
“We've already won in many ways, but we haven't won enough,” Trump said Monday.
But in a later post on his social media platform, Trump warned that if Tehran interfered with oil exports, the US military would bomb the country in a way that would make it “virtually impossible for Iran to ever be rebuilt as a nation.”
“Death, fire, and fury shall come upon them – But I hope and pray they shall not!” he wrote.
On Monday, global oil prices broke through the symbolic $100 a barrel level and temporarily rose 30% in a single day, before falling after Trump's statement. But they rose again on Tuesday, more slowly, and experts warn that the economic outlook remains highly volatile.
“Rare are the days when you see such volatility in the markets,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote Bank, warning that investors are overreacting to every piece of information, even when officials' statements contradict each other.
“Some of yesterday's optimism came after Trump said the war will end 'soon' and that the US is ahead of schedule,” she added.
