“Epic Fury” makes no sense? The overthrow of the Iranian regime is unlikely

A classified report by the US National Intelligence Council shows that it is unlikely that even a large-scale US operation against Iran would lead to the overthrow of Iran's military and spiritual leadership, the Washington Post wrote on Saturday.

The conclusions from this document raise doubts about the plan announced by US President Donald Trump to “clear” the Iranian command structure and install a leader of his choice in Tehran.

Work on the National Intelligence Council (NIC) report was completed about a week before the U.S. and Israel launched war against Iran on February 28.

The document outlined scenarios for a change of power in Tehran resulting either from a targeted campaign against Iran's leaders or from a broader attack on government leaders and institutions, sources told the newspaper.

According to intelligence, in both cases, Iran's spiritual and military leaders would have responded to the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by following procedures designed to ensure continuity in power.

The daily's interlocutors emphasized that the prospect of a divided opposition taking control of the country is “unlikely.”

It does not appear that the report also analyzed other possible scenarios, such as an American ground operation in Iran or the arming of Iranian Kurds who would rise up against the authorities in Tehran. It is also not known whether the large-scale operation described in the report is identical to the activities currently being carried out.

The White House did not respond whether the president was briefed on these NIC assessments before authorizing the military operation.

The U.S. National Intelligence Council is made up of experienced analysts who issue classified opinions designed to represent the collective knowledge of the 18 U.S. intelligence agencies.

From Washington Natalia Dziurdzińska (PAP)

Sun/ adj/