Anton Siluanov, Russian Minister of Finance, Photo: Mikhail Metzel / TASS / Profimedia Images
Germany's foreign intelligence service (BND) said on Wednesday Moscow was hiding the true cost of the war in Ukraine, saying Russia's budget deficit in 2025 was more than 2.36 trillion rubles ($30.45 billion) higher than officially declared, Reuters reports.
The BND said in a message shared on LinkedIn that Western sanctions are having a “clear effect” on the Russian economy, amid significantly lower revenues for Moscow from oil and gas exports. Global prices fell sharply last year, before now skyrocketing due to the conflict in the Middle East.
“Putin is sacrificing Russia's economic future for his imperial goals,” the BND pointed out.
The Kremlin said last week that falling revenues and widening budget deficits were “routine difficulties” and could be fixed thanks to the overall macroeconomic stability it said Russia was enjoying.
Russia's revenue from the sale of oil, its main export, has fallen as Moscow has been forced to sell it at a greater discount on global markets due to Western sanctions and US pressure on major buyers.
Russia has announced a budget deficit below 3% of GDP for 2025
The NDB estimated Russia's federal budget deficit at 8.01 trillion rubles, compared to the official figure of 5.65 trillion (equivalent to 2.6% of GDP). The German service did not disclose detailed calculations on how it arrived at the exact figure and did not immediately respond to a request for further comment from Reuters.
Russia's consolidated budget deficit, which also includes regional budgets, deteriorated substantially in 2025 to 8.3 trillion rubles, or 3.9% of GDP, 2.6 times more than in 2024, due to falling revenues and rising expenditures.
The Ministry of Finance in Moscow did not comment on the claims made by the BND.
A source close to the Russian government told Reuters in February that Russia's budget situation is deteriorating sharply.
Global oil prices have risen following strikes by the US and Israel against Iran, but the increase remains below the level needed to balance Russia's budget, according to Reuters calculations on Wednesday.
