The window of opportunity that Kyiv is targeting for EU membership. What is the biggest impediment?

The interval between the general elections in Hungary, in April 2026, and the presidential elections in France, in April 2027, represents the key period in which Ukraine must secure its future within the European Union, Politico points out, citing officials from Brussels and Kiev.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday that his country “wants a fast track to membership”. “The year 2027 is very important for us, and I hope, realistically, that Putin will not be able to block our accession for decades,” Volodymyr Zelensky said in a press statement on the 4th anniversary of the start of the war by Russia. Numerous European leaders were present in Kyiv yesterday to show their support for Ukraine.

The calendar discussed in Brussels and Kyiv

Kiev wants the peace deal negotiated by US President Donald Trump to include a reference to joining the EU in 2027.

The 20-point peace agreement, the document used as a starting point for peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, states in point 7 that “Ukraine will become a member of the EU on a specified date. Ukraine will also benefit from short-term preferential access to the European market.”

Although some voices in Moscow have spoken out against Kyiv joining the EU and NATO, Putin said in September 2025 that Russia has never opposed Ukraine's possible membership in the European Union, but said it does not agree with the country joining NATO.

The EU is working on a plan that could give Ukraine partial membership next year. Thus, Ukraine would obtain observer-like status at European Council summits and European Parliament committees while completing the necessary reforms to enjoy the privileges of full membership.

The last hurdle to overcome is in Budapest

The biggest impediment to Ukraine's speedy EU accession lies in Budapest. Viktor Orban has made blocking Ukraine's accession a central theme of his election campaign. He recently blocked the last aid package worth 90 billion euros that the EU wanted to allocate to Kiev.

There are hopes that Viktor Orban may be pressured, if he wins a new term as prime minister, not to block membership, especially if he is pressured by US President Donald Trump, a European diplomat and a Ukrainian official told Politico on condition of anonymity.

If Orbán loses the Hungarian election, both Brussels and Kiev see an opportunity in Péter Magyar, the opposition leader who leads the polls. The latest poll, published on Thursday, shows that Tisza, the opposition party led by Peter Magyar, has extended its lead over Fidesz, the prime minister's party, to 20 percentage points among voters determined to go to the polls.

The European diplomat who spoke to Politico says that while Magyar has made critical statements about Kiev in the past, he appears to want to work “constructively” with Brussels to unlock frozen EU funds for Hungary. That could be incentive enough for him to drop Hungary's opposition to Ukraine's EU membership. If not, the US administration could be asked to apply pressure if Trump still wants to play the role of negotiator.

The “as long as it takes” problem

The main worry in Kiev is that if negotiations drag on and Trump loses interest in a peace deal, “however long it takes” will mean Ukraine will remain outside the bloc until after the next European elections in 2029, or even later, according to the Ukrainian official.

The calendar that opens after Hungary's election risks closing after almost a year when France's presidential election takes place, in which the far-right Rassemblement National party, which has been favorable to the Kremlin in the past, is leading in the polls. If Marine Le Pen's party wins the presidency before Ukraine is offered a seat in the EU, the process could be blocked indefinitely.

However, Ukraine's full EU membership before 2027 is not on the cards, a senior EU official said.

European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that while they understood a “clear date” was “important” to Zelenski, as far as the EU was concerned, “the dates themselves [fără finalizarea reformelor] are not possible”.