Importing natural gas from the United States instead of Russia is replacing one dependence with another, and Donald Trump's threats against Greenland should be treated as a warning signal – tabout the words not of a Greenpeace activist clinging to a tanker somewhere in the North Sea, or even of an academic expert, but of the EU Commissioner for Energy and Housing Dan Jørgensenterminated at the end of January.
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Read also: Europe in the grip of gas. A sad picture of lack of diversification
LNG gas from the USA. “Strategic energy partnership”?
The representative of the main EU executive body deviated far from the message of his boss, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, who less than a year ago talked about a “strategic energy partnership” between the EU and the USA. In times of a growing sense of the decline of historic transatlantic ties and Washington's transition to the position of a rival of Brussels, should we really be concerned about the growing dependence on gas purchased overseas?
The international think-tank Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) sheds light on this matter in an analysis published in January. The Americans have actually made themselves at home in the European gas market, taking advantage of the necessary efforts to eliminate Russia from it; in 2021-2025, imports of American LNG to the EU increased from 21 billion cubic meters. up to 81 billion cubic meters. (with overall imports from Russia, both LNG and pipeline gas, dropping by 75% over the same period).
“This means that in 2025, the USA was responsible for 57% of LNG imports to EU member states,” writes Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, the IEEFA expert responsible for preparing the analysis. The recipients were 13 countries, of which the Netherlands was in first place, accounting for 21%. LNG import from the USA. In France it was 18 percent, in Germany -11 percent, and in Poland – 7 percent.
Share of individual EU member states in LNG imports from the USA
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IEEFA / IEEFA
LNG gas from the USA. Will the EU buy even more?
The EU officially intends to increase these amounts. In the trade agreement with the USA from July last year, we collectively committed to purchasing energy from the USA for USD 750 billion by 2028. IEEFA estimates show that, together with other agreements, LNG imports from the USA may ultimately increase to approximately 115 billion cubic meters. annually in 2030. The states will then be responsible for approximately 75-80 percent. liquefied gas supplies to the EU and 40 percent total gas supplies. In 2025 it was 27 percent. — most of the gas purchased by the EU is imported via pipelines, mainly from Norway.
The EU had already become aware of its unhealthy dependence on gas imports from Russia, and Putin's attack on Ukraine four years ago was the final signal to change this situation. The path to the final cut off from eastern supplies is marked by the REPowerEU program adopted shortly after the invasion, and a total ban on the purchase of Russian gas is to apply from next year, which EU leaders finally approved in January. Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, however, states in her analysis that tightening gas ties with the USA threatens the goals of REPowerEU, which also involve a broader diversification of energy supplies.
In 2030, the USA may be responsible for 80 percent. import of LNG gas to the European Union
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IEEFA / IEEFA
LNG gas from the USA. “Europe's selective blindness”?
Jørgensen's statement quoted at the beginning shows a certain shift in the thinking of European decision-makers, but according to critics, the elites in Brussels and the capitals of the Member States still they do not realize the scale of the threat.
Critics include: authors of the analysis “Europe's Selective Gas Blindness: US LNG and Frontiers in Supply Diversification”, recently published jointly by the international think-thank Ecologic Institute, the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and the Netherlands Institute of International Relations. As they write, EU documents, such as official communications from the Commission or the positions of the EU Council and the European Parliament on national diversification plans, are limited only to the problem of gas from Russia.
The analysis states that, according to Europeans, importing raw materials from the US does not pose a risk similar to importing raw materials from Russia, among others, because the local market is not monopolized by a single state player similar to the Russian Gazprom, and private companies compete for their own position without exerting geopolitical pressure.
LNG gas. The USA is the world's largest exporter
This sounds good in theory, but such a neutral vision is contradicted by the latest American national security strategy from November 2025. Donald Trump's administration explicitly writes that “American energy dominance” in terms of coal, gas, oil, but also nuclear fuel is the state's priority and is to be used for the so-called power projection.
The same document contains direct, unfriendly statements about Europe, and the Trump team, according to the authors, does not hide the fact that economic issues are treated as a political weapon. Experts say that large amounts of gas and oil are unnecessary in Europe, because thanks to the ongoing energy transformation, the demand for these raw materials will decrease.
Meanwhile, the United States is strengthening its position as a producer and largest exporter of LNG in the world. The International Energy Agency, in its report on the global gas market from January this year, indicates that the largest investments in the extraction of the blue fuel have been made in the USA, and this country's share in the global LNG market is expected to increase from approximately 25%. in 2025 to approximately 33 percent at the end of the decade.
LNG transport
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GreenOak / Shutterstock
Import of LNG gas. “Late debate”
—It is very good that there is a belated debate on our excessive exposure to difficult geopolitical partners, and not just Russia — the risks associated with dependence on imports of American gas are commented on by the president of the Instrat Foundation, Michał Hetmański, for Business Insider Polska.
As he says, the EU must ensure the best possible price and trade conditions in contacts with the three main gas suppliers, i.e. the USA, Qatar and Norway.
– TSuch conversations require keeping our cards to ourselves and to maintain good conditions, we should not publicly show that we are ready to cut ourselves off from one main supplier – he adds.
Read also: Poland relies on gas in its energy mix. Is this a trap or an opportunity?
Saying goodbye to gas? “Very long-term perspective”
In Hetmański's opinion, strengthening renewable energy sources produced on site reduces Europe's vulnerability to dependence on external supplies of fossil fuels. He mentions wind energy in this context – both on land and in the sea. — Gas companies have convinced politicians that windmills are expensive and unstable – now it's time to dispel this myth – indicates.
Can we, in some perspective, count on a complete move away from natural gas – which remains an emission-intensive fossil fuel and is often called a transition fuel in the EU nomenclature? Michał Hetmański advises focusing on current problems instead of long-term considerations.
—Saying goodbye to gas is a very long-term vision and it is better to focus on what we can do here and now to reduce its consumption and a plan to keep the peak demand of approximately 27 billion meters in check. six. – says.
The expert reminds about the risk of a repetition of high costs in the event of another market crisis, similar to the one that occurred on a larger scale after the Russian attack on Ukraine. As he points out, controlling such a situation by freezing the prices of gas, but also electricity and heat would be extremely expensive for our country.
