The great return of the HoReCa industry. Record results not seen in years

31 percent surveyed companies from the HoReCa industry expect an increase in sales in the next three months – according to the Barometer prepared by the European Leasing Fund. At the same time, 40 percent entrepreneurs plan to limit investments in the first months of this year.

The report stated that the EFL Barometer index for HoReCa companies (hotels, restaurants, catering companies) for the first quarter of this year. was 54 points – that's it the fifth increase in a row and the highest level in over 4 years (in the third quarter of 2021, just over a year after the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, it was 59.9 points).

They expect sales to increase

The authors of the information indicated that the greatest contribution to the high reading of the HoReCa Barometer comes from sales forecasts – 31%. entrepreneurs expect an increase in sales in the next three months (in Q4 2025 it was 29%). In their opinion, this means that companies more often than a quarter earlier assume a larger number of reservations and orders, “which corresponds well with winter tourist traffic, including holidays and short leisure trips.”

According to the results of the study regarding investments in fixed assets, 17.5 percent HoReCa companies are planning larger expenditures (in Q4 2025 it was 7.5%). At the same time, 40 percent entrepreneurs plan to limit investments in the first months of this year.

In turn, 19 percent companies forecast an improvement in financial liquidity (20 percent in Q4 2025). At the same time, 11 percent entrepreneurs declare a greater need for external funding (6% in Q4 2025), e.g. to finance development activities or secure liquidity “in a more costly operating season”.

“HoReCa is entering the first quarter with a very solid attitude, and the sub-index result is the best reading in several years and another step up. This is especially visible in sales forecasts, which in the winter season with holidays in the background can act as a natural boost for occupancy and the number of reservations,” emphasized Piotr Warmuła from EFL, quoted in the report.

Investments? Not so fast

He noted that at the same time, the group of companies ready to increase expenditure is growing, but caution and decisions to reduce budgets are also becoming more frequent. “This is a signal that the industry, despite good demand, still carefully counts costs and monitors financial security,” he added.

The EFL barometer is a synthetic indicator informing about the tendency of SME sector companies to grow. The survey is prepared by Ecorys on behalf of the European Leasing Fund, and its results are published quarterly. A representative group of 600 micro, small and medium-sized companies from all over Poland took part in the study. The current edition of the study took place from December 15, 2025 to January 16, 2026. (PAP)

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