Bad news for Viktor Orban. “The EC made a mistake.” It's about EUR 10 billion
MEPs accuse the Commission of political opportunism, arguing that the decision was taken on the eve of a key summit of EU leaders during which they desperately needed the cooperation of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to send aid to Ukraine.
The legal opinion of Advocate General Tamara Ćapeta – annulling the Commission's decision to unblock the funds – will be a guide for judges when issuing the final ruling, which will be announced in a few months. Advocates general are not judges but legal advisers who assist the court in complex or unprecedented cases.
We believe that this Commission decision was based on a thorough assessment, in particular of the reforms carried out by Hungary to address the shortcomings in the judicial system identified by the Commission. Furthermore, the Commission Decision clearly sets out the reasons why the Commission considered that these reforms addressed these shortcomings
– says a Commission spokesman in a statement to POLITICO.
The Court has been working on this case since March 2024, when the European Parliament filed its lawsuit.
In-depth assessment
Ćapeta's opinion states that the Commission “incorrectly” applied its own rule of law requirements by providing funds before the Hungarian government had fully implemented the reforms.
It also states that The Commission failed to carry out a “proper assessment of the reforms regarding the independence” of the Hungarian Supreme Court and the appointment of members of the Hungarian Constitutional Court — two key issues that Parliament believes have not been adequately addressed by the Commission.
The Advocate General also criticizes the Commission for a lack of transparency, claiming that it did not provide adequate arguments to justify the decision to unfreeze the measures.
The Commission owes an explanation not only to Hungary but to all EU citizens
– we read in the statement.
However, the legal adviser did not support Parliament's allegations that the Commission had abused its powers.
Ćapeta argues that in its assessment of the unfreezing of funds, the Commission did not take into account the controversial law on the protection of sovereignty adopted by the Hungarian parliament. In a separate legal opinion issued on Thursday, the CJEU said the law violates EU law because it restricts “several fundamental freedoms.”
Money back. “If Hungary does not do this, the EC may reduce their other payments”
Rene Repasi, a German MEP and professor of EU law at Erasmus University Rotterdam and the University of Geneva, says an annulment would mean the Commission should “demand a refund.”
If Hungary does not repay the money, the Commission may reduce other payments to which Hungary is entitled by the amount that Hungary is obliged to repay
says Repasi.
The court's ruling will set a precedent on the scope of the Commission's discretion when assessing breaches of the rule of law by EU countries, especially in the context of the Common Provisions Regulation, which sets strict conditions on fundamental rights and judicial independence for the disbursement of EU funds.
The Commission defended itself at a hearing in October 2025, arguing that Budapest has formally met certain previously agreed milestones regarding the independence of the judiciaryand the Commission therefore had to release funds.
However, the Advocate General's opinion agrees with the argument of Parliament's lawyers that the Commission should have taken a broader view of the systemic deficiencies in the rule of law in Hungary and that it incorrectly assessed the achievement of the objectives of judicial reform.
MEP Daniel Freund says the Advocate General's opinion “was a severe reprimand for the Commission.” — If the court follows this reasoning in its final ruling, it will mean a victory for the rule of law in Europe – he adds.
Freund also claims that the opinion “confirms what the European Parliament has long condemned: the transfer of EUR 10 billion to the Hungarian government was illegal and politically motivated. By acting in this way, the Commission has lost its credibility.”
— EU funds can only be disbursed if the recipient complies with the law, European values and the rule of law. We expect the European Commission to respect these principles in the future. He must stop allowing himself to be manipulated by autocrats like Viktor Orban, comments Freund.
